Statistical Predictions for the 2023-24 Columbus Blue Jackets

This week’s Friday Feature has us making statistical predictions for every player we think will make the Columbus Blue Jacket roster this fall.

I’m not usually one to make points predictions – especially since training camp doesn’t even start for a couple of weeks. But, it seems like a good time to put together an “educated guess” and take a crack at it this year. After all, there hasn’t been much news with the club since the team hired Mike Babcock all the way back on July 1st. He’ll be at the helm of arguably the most talented roster this franchise has ever had this season, and while we’re tempering our expectations and not ready to call this a playoff team yet (they’re really young); it’s an exciting time for Central Ohio hockey fans.

In this article, we’re basing our predictions off of a couple of things. First, we’re starting at the top of the lineup and working with the veterans. For their predictions I take two things into account. One, average productivity over their entire career (note: we’re excluding the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season). And two; the quality of their linemates. This way, we can work down the roster and project where the younger players might land with their productivity. We are using our own summer roster prediction to lay out the lines. Keep in mind, I’m a glass-half-full guy when it comes to prospects, so I’ll admit that we might be aiming a little bit high on Adam Fantilli and some of the other youngsters.

The forward group may be green, but there is a lot of talent here…

Johnny Gaudreau 78GP, 26G, 53A, 79Pts … We have to start the list off with the man who will be expected to drive the offense for the Blue Jackets. He’s fairly easy to predict because he’s been consistent throughout his career, basically averaging these numbers every season, with a couple of outliers at either end. I don’t see him getting a big boost from his current linemates, but anything is possible. So, keep those franchise record hopes in check, at least for now … unless a lot goes right for the Jackets this year, I expect Johnny to come up just short.

Boone Jenner 68GP, 24G, 20A, 44Pts … Boone probably starts the year as the team’s top line center, so I think he’ll see an increase over his career-average of 18 goals and 17 assists. But, I don’t think he’ll spend the entire season there, so he’ll probably come up short of his career-high 49 points. Injuries are a concern here too … he hasn’t played in a full NHL season since 2018-19 (77 games played).

Kirill Marchenko 78GP, 29G, 24A, 53Pts … Here goes our first real crack at an educated guess. Marchenko was fantastic for the Jackets last season, scoring 21 goals in 59 games and playing on the top line for much of its second half. But, he shot at a ridiculous 16% rate, which isn’t sustainable, so I temper my expectations on a huge goal scoring increase. He averaged a little over two shots per game, so if he stays healthy and plays in the top-six (along with PP1 minutes), a near-30 goal season seems possible, assuming he takes a few more shots here and there. I also think he’ll get a lot more assists this year.

The middle six forward group has to produce better this year…

Kent Johnson 79GP, 21G, 48A, 69Pts … I’m taking another educated guess here and saying that Kent Johnson will finish second on the team in points and assists this year. I don’t think that’s really a stretch – he finished fourth in assists and fifth in points last season, and he should be more prepared heading into his second NHL season. I don’t have him quite getting to 70 points, but I do not think that’s out of reach. He’ll be a star under Mike Babcock.

Jack Roslovic 68GP, 16G, 24A, 40Pts … If Adam Fantilli (more on him later) proves he’s ready for a big role on this team, no player will suffer more than Jack Roslovic, who will probably find himself out of a top-six job. Still, he’s been a consistent producer for this team and I think he’ll get a little bit of a productivity bump because he’ll be playing with Johnson and Laine to start the year – with an offensive system that should help him. And, he’s in a contract year. We all know how that goes with talented guys.

Patrik Laine 69GP, 40G, 28A, 68Pts … Yes, I think Patrik Laine will see a bump from his career-average of ~31 goals this year. He’s healthy, motivated, and I think few players will benefit more from Babcock’s system than Laine. He has a world class shot and should be easily capable of scoring 40 goals in this league – especially if he can stay healthy and improve upon that average of 69 games per season.

Alexandre Texier 65GP, 15G, 15A, 30Pts … Texier may be the hardest player to predict on the entire roster. When he first came over from Europe, he stepped up and looked like a future second line center. But he dropped off, then started to recover … then headed back to Europe. It’s not impossible to see him on one of the power-play units, but it will be tough. I think he’ll more likely be a key penalty killer and secondary producer on this team, playing in the bottom-six. He has the skill to post nearly a half point-per-game average against secondary competition.

Adam Fantilli 78GP, 30G, 27A, 57Pts … My guess for Fantilli may seem a little bit high, but I think he’ll be on the top line alongside Gaudreau before too long. And, I think he’ll become the new net-front guy on the first power-play unit, especially if Jenner should go down with injury again. If those things happen, he’s very capable of being a 30 goal rookie in the NHL, and I definitely think he’ll be a top-six contributor to this team.

Yegor Chinakhov 68GP, 21G, 16A, 37Pts … Another player that’s hard to project, Chinakhov feels like he’s entering a make or break year for the Jackets. He has everything a coach like Mike Babcock will love: he’s big, skates well, plays hard on both sides of the puck, and can score goals. I’m optimistic that he can be a productive goal scorer this year.

The Jackets added some key pieces to the back end this summer. Now, if they can just stay healthy…

Zach Werenski 64GP, 16G, 32A, 48Pts … If he can stay in the lineup and exceed his career-average of 64 games played, I think Zach is more than capable of matching or exceeding his career-high of 48 points with this team. He’ll quarterback the first power-play unit, which should lead to plenty of shooting and passing (to an elite shooter in Laine, no less) opportunities. If that group can play up to their potential, they could be a top-10 unit in the league … which could lead to career years for a few guys. Including Werenski.

Adam Boqvist 65GP, 10G, 31A, 41Pts … Boqvist has averaged just 40 games per season through his short career so far, so we’re projecting him higher in our prediction. If he can stay healthy, he could be a big contributor to this team’s offense . He really seemed to be picking up for a long stretch of time last season. He’ll likely quarterback the second power-play unit, and he has all of the tools to be a high end point producer in this league.

Ivan Provorov 79GP, 10G, 22A, 32Pts … Due to his relative health over the years (fingers crossed!), Provorov gives us an easy statistical prediction. These are his career averages, and for a guy who is probably going to lock down the second defense pairing, with his abilities, these totals don’t seem to be a stretch at all. He’ll make a huge difference for this team at both ends of the ice, in my opinion.

Damon Severson 74GP, 7G, 24A, 31Pts … Similarly, Severson has been remarkably healthy throughout his NHL career so far, and these are his career averages. The Jackets will probably be counting on him to play in a shutdown role, so any offense he chips in will be an added bonus. If he keeps playing a lot of hockey (again, fingers crossed), I expect Severson to be a big difference maker at both ends as well. His experience is invaluable to this young team.

Jake Bean 50GP, 7G, 18A, 25Pts … We’re making projections here, because Jake Bean has exceeded 40 games played only twice in his career (even then, just 42 and 67 games). He’ll be a depth option on the power-play, but overall I expect him to play as the #5/6 guy on this team, with protected minutes against mostly secondary competition. He could surprise us and break out, showing the skill that saw him drafted 13th overall at the 2016 NHL draft – but it hasn’t happened yet, so we’re tempering our expectations. This feels like a make or break year for Jake.

Erik Gudbranson 60GP, 2G, 6A, 8Pts … Gudbranson doesn’t offer us a whole lot offensively, but that’s not what he’s paid to do anyway. Like Olivier, he’ll be expected to bring size and toughness, but to the back end – which comes in really handy when you have a young team, especially when the games start to really matter. These are roughly his career averages.

Andrew Peeke 61GP, 3G, 4A, 7Pts … Similar to Gudbranson, we have Peeke’s career averages here. Like Gudbranson, Peeke doesn’t chip in a lot of points. Unlike Gudbranson, he doesn’t bring a lot of physicality or toughness. Instead, he blocks a ton of shots and sticks to a safe, stay-at-home game. Getting ice time against lower end competition could help him produce more offensively – but more importantly, limiting his minutes against opposing teams’ top lines, could help mask his overall shortcomings.

Other extra defensemen who could see NHL time: David Jiricek, Nick Blankenburg, Tim Berni (RFA), Samuel Knazko, Stanislav Svozil, Marcus Bjork, Jake Christiansen

The goaltending has to be better for this team this year. The revamped defense should help…

Elvis Merzlikins 58GP (55 starts), .908 sv%, 2.90GAA, 29 wins … We have to project numbers for Elvis because he hasn’t played enough NHL hockey to give us a good baseline. He’s had one standout season at the really good end, and one standout season at the really bad end. Sandwiched between is one average NHL season. I still think Elvis can be a good (key: not great or elite) starting goaltender, and the added help on the blue line should make his season easier. If he can play confident hockey, I don’t think it’s without question that he can be a middle of the pack starting goalie in the NHL. Which coincidentally, is how he’s paid. We were spoiled by years of elite goaltending by Sergei Bobrovsky – don’t let that cloud your judgment of Elvis.

Daniil Tarasov 30GP (27 starts), .905 sv%, 2.90GAA, 13 wins … Daniil Tarasov enters his third NHL season as the team’s de facto backup goaltender. Injuries have delayed his full-time arrival, but in limited viewings he’s been a solid NHL goalie. He’ll see the tougher assignments most likely; second halves of back-to-backs, or games after long travel. But, he’s a talented guy who could steal the starting job for stretches, at least in theory. Staying healthy is key, and he has to prove he belongs this year.

*PTO invitee Aaron Dell 10GP (5 starts), .900 sv%, 2.90GAA, 2 wins … Should Merzlikins or Tarasov falter, training camp invitee Aaron Dell could be next in line for starts, assuming he earns a contract out of camp. The 34 year old veteran is smaller in stature, but he’s been a scrappy competitor at every stop along the way. Don’t expect him to get a ton of starts for this team, but this could be a great guy to have around if needed. Key point here: I don’t expect him to get 10 games played and 2 wins on top of Merzlikins and Tarasov; rather in lieu of.

So, what about the team’s overall record?

If you’re a statistical guru and did the math, you’ve probably put it all together by now and realized that my projections here put this team at roughly 319 goals for, but only 238 or so against. If that holds true, we’re playoff bound for sure. Unfortunately, it won’t hold true.

A couple of things to keep in mind defensively: the Jackets gave up 330 goals against last season, far and away a franchise record. The defense will be better this year. I think that will help the goaltending improve. We all hope they’ll be healthier. Will it be enough to drop 90+ goals against off of their record? Probably not, but the talent is there, and they have a new head coach whose systems should help. The other thing to take into account with goals against are shootouts. They’ll lose some games in those situations as well; which don’t show up on their goals against average.

Offensively, we’re gauging high on some guys, but it’s with reason. A healthy Patrik Laine, for example, should be a premier goal scorer in this league…he’s just struggled to stay healthy over the last few seasons. I also see some of the fill-in players chipping in goals and points, which we don’t account for here. With that said, I still don’t see this team combining for over 300 goals this year – there are just too many “ifs” and “maybes” on the roster. Everyone won’t stay healthy, and these are all really best case scenarios. More likely, if we’re looking at productivity from a guy like Dmitry Voronkov for example, his 14 goal projection is probably mostly in lieu of Eric Robinson’s 8 goals, or Sean Kuraly’s 10 goals, or some combination of the two.

Overall, I think they’re more capable of around 270 goals for – roughly, middle of the pack if you compare it to last season. If they can score at that pace, and vastly improve upon their team defense, I think they can be a better than .500 team, though not quite in the playoff picture yet.

Team prediction: 39-36-7 (85pts), 270GF, 250GA … I think this would be more than an acceptable season. That’s a 26-point improvement over last year, which may seem dramatic and unachievable. But, if they can stay mostly healthy and everyone buys into Mike Babcock’s system, it’s very attainable. How much differently would last year have been with 70+ games of Zach Werenski, Patrik Laine, and Adam Boqvist? Let alone losing guys like Gustav Nyquist, Jakub Voracek, not to mention key depth players like Justin Danforth and Yegor Chinakhov. It was just too much to overcome.

With better luck injury-wise, I think they can at least compete with teams like Washington, Pittsburgh, and the NY Islanders within their own division this season. We couldn’t say that for much of last year.