Statistical Predictions for the 2023-24 Columbus Blue Jackets

This week’s Friday Feature has us making statistical predictions for every player we think will make the Columbus Blue Jacket roster this fall.

I’m not usually one to make points predictions – especially since training camp doesn’t even start for a couple of weeks. But, it seems like a good time to put together an “educated guess” and take a crack at it this year. After all, there hasn’t been much news with the club since the team hired Mike Babcock all the way back on July 1st. He’ll be at the helm of arguably the most talented roster this franchise has ever had this season, and while we’re tempering our expectations and not ready to call this a playoff team yet (they’re really young); it’s an exciting time for Central Ohio hockey fans.

In this article, we’re basing our predictions off of a couple of things. First, we’re starting at the top of the lineup and working with the veterans. For their predictions I take two things into account. One, average productivity over their entire career (note: we’re excluding the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season). And two; the quality of their linemates. This way, we can work down the roster and project where the younger players might land with their productivity. We are using our own summer roster prediction to lay out the lines. Keep in mind, I’m a glass-half-full guy when it comes to prospects, so I’ll admit that we might be aiming a little bit high on Adam Fantilli and some of the other youngsters.

The forward group may be green, but there is a lot of talent here…

Johnny Gaudreau 78GP, 26G, 53A, 79Pts … We have to start the list off with the man who will be expected to drive the offense for the Blue Jackets. He’s fairly easy to predict because he’s been consistent throughout his career, basically averaging these numbers every season, with a couple of outliers at either end. I don’t see him getting a big boost from his current linemates, but anything is possible. So, keep those franchise record hopes in check, at least for now … unless a lot goes right for the Jackets this year, I expect Johnny to come up just short.

Boone Jenner 68GP, 24G, 20A, 44Pts … Boone probably starts the year as the team’s top line center, so I think he’ll see an increase over his career-average of 18 goals and 17 assists. But, I don’t think he’ll spend the entire season there, so he’ll probably come up short of his career-high 49 points. Injuries are a concern here too … he hasn’t played in a full NHL season since 2018-19 (77 games played).

Kirill Marchenko 78GP, 29G, 24A, 53Pts … Here goes our first real crack at an educated guess. Marchenko was fantastic for the Jackets last season, scoring 21 goals in 59 games and playing on the top line for much of its second half. But, he shot at a ridiculous 16% rate, which isn’t sustainable, so I temper my expectations on a huge goal scoring increase. He averaged a little over two shots per game, so if he stays healthy and plays in the top-six (along with PP1 minutes), a near-30 goal season seems possible, assuming he takes a few more shots here and there. I also think he’ll get a lot more assists this year.

The bottom six for the Jackets will have some rotating parts this year…

Eric Robinson 50GP, 8G, 8A, 16Pts … Basically, this is right at the career average for Eric Robinson, if you take into account his limited first season as well. And I think these are fair expectations for a guy who has become a utility player on the fourth line. He’ll play on the PK, burn up and down the ice, but chipping in more than depth scoring is asking a lot. I also think he’ll be pushed by some of the younger players for ice time, which limits his offensive chances.

Sean Kuraly 62GP, 10G, 11A, 21Pts … Again, right at his career average, but with a couple of extra goals. He’s scored at a slightly higher pace with the Jackets than he did in Boston. Unlike Robinson, Kuraly will play in all 82 games if he stays healthy, which could cause an uptick in these stats. He’s a valuable fourth line player on this team, and should lock down PK time, important draws and defensive zone starts all season. It won’t be easy to produce offense, but he’ll do that here and there.

Justin Danforth 55GP, 12G, 7A, 19Pts … Projecting again here, I think Danforth’s energy and two-way effort is going to make him a hard pull from the lineup. He’ll probably split some time with Mathieu Olivier on that fourth line, but when he’s in the lineup, he can chip in some secondary offense, play on the PK, and bring plenty of energy. Don’t forget: he started last season on the first power-play unit. The skill is there. I’m interested to see how he comes back from shoulder surgery.

Dmitry Voronkov 55GP, 14G, 9A, 25Pts … Voronkov is probably the most NHL-ready prospect the Jackets have. He’s been playing against men for four seasons in Russia, scoring plenty of goals in that time – including a career-high 18 in 54 games last season. At 6’4″ and nearly 200 pounds, I think he’ll earn plenty of ice time with the Jackets this year. Probably in the bottom-six, but he’ll chip in secondary offense because of his size and skill down low.

Mathieu Olivier 50GP, 5G, 10A, 15Pts … Olivier will bring much needed grit and toughness to the lineup when he’s in, and that’s all we need from him. The secondary (third-ary?) offense is just a bonus; he forechecks hard, and is a bull in the corners and in front of the net. He’ll chip in some points here and there, but don’t expect him to exceed his 5 goal, 15 point output from last season.

Other forwards who could see significant NHL time: Cole Sillinger, Liam Foudy, Emil Bemstrom, Hunter McKown, Carson Meyer, Trey Fix-Wolansky

The Jackets added some key pieces to the back end this summer. Now, if they can just stay healthy…

Zach Werenski 64GP, 16G, 32A, 48Pts … If he can stay in the lineup and exceed his career-average of 64 games played, I think Zach is more than capable of matching or exceeding his career-high of 48 points with this team. He’ll quarterback the first power-play unit, which should lead to plenty of shooting and passing (to an elite shooter in Laine, no less) opportunities. If that group can play up to their potential, they could be a top-10 unit in the league … which could lead to career years for a few guys. Including Werenski.

Adam Boqvist 65GP, 10G, 31A, 41Pts … Boqvist has averaged just 40 games per season through his short career so far, so we’re projecting him higher in our prediction. If he can stay healthy, he could be a big contributor to this team’s offense . He really seemed to be picking up for a long stretch of time last season. He’ll likely quarterback the second power-play unit, and he has all of the tools to be a high end point producer in this league.

Ivan Provorov 79GP, 10G, 22A, 32Pts … Due to his relative health over the years (fingers crossed!), Provorov gives us an easy statistical prediction. These are his career averages, and for a guy who is probably going to lock down the second defense pairing, with his abilities, these totals don’t seem to be a stretch at all. He’ll make a huge difference for this team at both ends of the ice, in my opinion.

Damon Severson 74GP, 7G, 24A, 31Pts … Similarly, Severson has been remarkably healthy throughout his NHL career so far, and these are his career averages. The Jackets will probably be counting on him to play in a shutdown role, so any offense he chips in will be an added bonus. If he keeps playing a lot of hockey (again, fingers crossed), I expect Severson to be a big difference maker at both ends as well. His experience is invaluable to this young team.

Jake Bean 50GP, 7G, 18A, 25Pts … We’re making projections here, because Jake Bean has exceeded 40 games played only twice in his career (even then, just 42 and 67 games). He’ll be a depth option on the power-play, but overall I expect him to play as the #5/6 guy on this team, with protected minutes against mostly secondary competition. He could surprise us and break out, showing the skill that saw him drafted 13th overall at the 2016 NHL draft – but it hasn’t happened yet, so we’re tempering our expectations. This feels like a make or break year for Jake.

Erik Gudbranson 60GP, 2G, 6A, 8Pts … Gudbranson doesn’t offer us a whole lot offensively, but that’s not what he’s paid to do anyway. Like Olivier, he’ll be expected to bring size and toughness, but to the back end – which comes in really handy when you have a young team, especially when the games start to really matter. These are roughly his career averages.

Andrew Peeke 61GP, 3G, 4A, 7Pts … Similar to Gudbranson, we have Peeke’s career averages here. Like Gudbranson, Peeke doesn’t chip in a lot of points. Unlike Gudbranson, he doesn’t bring a lot of physicality or toughness. Instead, he blocks a ton of shots and sticks to a safe, stay-at-home game. Getting ice time against lower end competition could help him produce more offensively – but more importantly, limiting his minutes against opposing teams’ top lines, could help mask his overall shortcomings.

Other extra defensemen who could see NHL time: David Jiricek, Nick Blankenburg, Tim Berni (RFA), Samuel Knazko, Stanislav Svozil, Marcus Bjork, Jake Christiansen

The goaltending has to be better for this team this year. The revamped defense should help…

Elvis Merzlikins 58GP (55 starts), .908 sv%, 2.90GAA, 29 wins … We have to project numbers for Elvis because he hasn’t played enough NHL hockey to give us a good baseline. He’s had one standout season at the really good end, and one standout season at the really bad end. Sandwiched between is one average NHL season. I still think Elvis can be a good (key: not great or elite) starting goaltender, and the added help on the blue line should make his season easier. If he can play confident hockey, I don’t think it’s without question that he can be a middle of the pack starting goalie in the NHL. Which coincidentally, is how he’s paid. We were spoiled by years of elite goaltending by Sergei Bobrovsky – don’t let that cloud your judgment of Elvis.

Daniil Tarasov 30GP (27 starts), .905 sv%, 2.90GAA, 13 wins … Daniil Tarasov enters his third NHL season as the team’s de facto backup goaltender. Injuries have delayed his full-time arrival, but in limited viewings he’s been a solid NHL goalie. He’ll see the tougher assignments most likely; second halves of back-to-backs, or games after long travel. But, he’s a talented guy who could steal the starting job for stretches, at least in theory. Staying healthy is key, and he has to prove he belongs this year.

*PTO invitee Aaron Dell 10GP (5 starts), .900 sv%, 2.90GAA, 2 wins … Should Merzlikins or Tarasov falter, training camp invitee Aaron Dell could be next in line for starts, assuming he earns a contract out of camp. The 34 year old veteran is smaller in stature, but he’s been a scrappy competitor at every stop along the way. Don’t expect him to get a ton of starts for this team, but this could be a great guy to have around if needed. Key point here: I don’t expect him to get 10 games played and 2 wins on top of Merzlikins and Tarasov; rather in lieu of.

So, what about the team’s overall record?

If you’re a statistical guru and did the math, you’ve probably put it all together by now and realized that my projections here put this team at roughly 319 goals for, but only 238 or so against. If that holds true, we’re playoff bound for sure. Unfortunately, it won’t hold true.

A couple of things to keep in mind defensively: the Jackets gave up 330 goals against last season, far and away a franchise record. The defense will be better this year. I think that will help the goaltending improve. We all hope they’ll be healthier. Will it be enough to drop 90+ goals against off of their record? Probably not, but the talent is there, and they have a new head coach whose systems should help. The other thing to take into account with goals against are shootouts. They’ll lose some games in those situations as well; which don’t show up on their goals against average.

Offensively, we’re gauging high on some guys, but it’s with reason. A healthy Patrik Laine, for example, should be a premier goal scorer in this league…he’s just struggled to stay healthy over the last few seasons. I also see some of the fill-in players chipping in goals and points, which we don’t account for here. With that said, I still don’t see this team combining for over 300 goals this year – there are just too many “ifs” and “maybes” on the roster. Everyone won’t stay healthy, and these are all really best case scenarios. More likely, if we’re looking at productivity from a guy like Dmitry Voronkov for example, his 14 goal projection is probably mostly in lieu of Eric Robinson’s 8 goals, or Sean Kuraly’s 10 goals, or some combination of the two.

Overall, I think they’re more capable of around 270 goals for – roughly, middle of the pack if you compare it to last season. If they can score at that pace, and vastly improve upon their team defense, I think they can be a better than .500 team, though not quite in the playoff picture yet.

Team prediction: 39-36-7 (85pts), 270GF, 250GA … I think this would be more than an acceptable season. That’s a 26-point improvement over last year, which may seem dramatic and unachievable. But, if they can stay mostly healthy and everyone buys into Mike Babcock’s system, it’s very attainable. How much differently would last year have been with 70+ games of Zach Werenski, Patrik Laine, and Adam Boqvist? Let alone losing guys like Gustav Nyquist, Jakub Voracek, not to mention key depth players like Justin Danforth and Yegor Chinakhov. It was just too much to overcome.

With better luck injury-wise, I think they can at least compete with teams like Washington, Pittsburgh, and the NY Islanders within their own division this season. We couldn’t say that for much of last year.