Our Prediction for the 2023-24 Columbus Blue Jacket Roster
Today we’ll take our first crack at guessing the opening night roster for the Columbus Blue Jackets. This is a way too early look at how the team might be assembled – in fact, we expect moves to be made to clear up some of the logjams before training camp even starts.
There’s a lot of debate about where people might fit in, some of which includes leaving viable NHL players off the roster. While that may ultimately be the case, as a self-proclaimed prospects guru, the one thing I’m always quick to point out: until young players prove themselves ready, they are still just prospects. For that reason, proven NHL players cannot be written off before training camp even begins.
Now, with that said, there are some exceptions to the rule. I think Adam Fantilli is absolutely ready to step right into the NHL, and in a prime role. He has the size, strength, skill, and maturity to do so – the only question I have here is, how much does new head coach Mike Babcock try to shield him as he makes the adjustment?
I also think we have to point out the fact that this team had the second worst record in the NHL last season, so, some guys who played here should be concerned. Part of that was due to injuries, and all of those guys who hit the LTIR will be back this fall, which will take away ice time for some of those players. And, it’s also worth noting that some of the players on last year’s team might have proven themselves to have lower value than we might have originally perceived.
The other thing we have to take into account here is each player’s contract status. For this reason, and for the sudden wealth of depth that the team has in certain areas; a prospect has to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s ready to play in the NHL full-time. This would make a veteran player expendable, and there are two things to keep in mind here. First, the Jackets aren’t going to lose valuable pieces for nothing; so it would probably prompt a trade. And second, if the team makes that trade, they have to be 100% sure that it’s not going to gut this team in the case of injuries. They’ll want to keep some depth around, so again, this is not as easy as it may seem if you’re playing EA Sports’ NHL Franchise Mode.
With all of that in mind, here’s my prediction for the 23-man opening night roster, as of July 27th:
Line 1: Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko
Line 2: Johnson – Roslovic – Laine
Line 3: Texier – Fantilli – Chinakhov
Line 4: Robinson – Kuraly – Danforth
Extras: Voronkov, Olivier
Defense pair 1: Werenski – Boqvist
Defense pair 2: Provorov – Severson
Defense pair 3: Bean – Gudbranson
Extra: Peeke
Goaltenders: Merzlikins, Tarasov
First off, the goaltending is about as cut and dry as you can get. Merzlikins is paid to be the starter, is not going to be traded, and needs to bounce back. Tarasov enters the season on a one-way contract, so he’s here as well. But if you look at the rest of the roster, there are some notable players missing from this list, were you able to pick them out? On the next page, we’ll start to discuss our decisions in depth.
The first things we took into consideration were detailed heavily in the first few paragraphs of the article. The one thing we forgot to mention? The new head coach, Mike Babcock – he’s going to make different roster decisions than Brad Larsen did.
Babcock has made no secret of the fact that he wants a 200-ft player on each line. For this reason, the only issue I see with our lineup prediction is on the team’s second line. All three of Kent Johnson, Jack Roslovic, and Patrick Laine are offensive weapons, who have been brought to question for their defensive zone play. With that said, Laine has shown a willingness and surprising aptitude when called upon, so I think this line could work.
Now, I’ll be the first to admit that there are glaring omissions from our prediction. There weren’t really any “easy” cuts amongst the forwards for me, but the two that stood out right away were Emil Bemstrom and Cole Sillinger. Bemstrom didn’t even make last year’s team out of camp; then struggled to produce even when placed in a top line role alongside Johnny Gaudreau. They can risk sending him down because it’s likely he’ll clear waivers – but if he doesn’t, I don’t think losing him changes this team’s direction too much.
Sillinger is still on his ELC and has not yet hit the required number of NHL games played to require waivers. So, I think he’ll start the year in Cleveland. If he plays well and proves he’s ready to move back up, that could spell doom for Roslovic by the time we get to the trade deadline next season.
The most difficult cut I see in this scenario is Liam Foudy. The 2018 first round pick has struggled with the adjustment to the NHL so far, and I really think it’s down to him, Eric Robinson, Dmitry Voronkov, and Justin Danforth to battle for the last three jobs up front this fall. Robinson is probably Foudy’s most direct competition; he’s a proven NHL guy who can kill penalties, so I think his job is pretty safe until someone shows they can take it.
One alternate theory: that someone may be Voronkov, who could bring a ton of grit and mash to the fourth line. If he beats out Robinson for that left wing spot, he can also play center in spot duty – and wind up under the wing of one of the best fourth line centers in the league, Sean Kuraly. If this is the case, I think the team is even more likely to opt for Danforth on the other side, to take on the speedy/PK role and provide some depth scoring. Regardless what happens around him, I don’t see the team sending Voronkov down for too long, as he can opt to return to the KHL. They didn’t sign him to allow him to go back to Russia.
All of this, combined with the contracts held by Robinson and Olivier, is the long-winded way of saying that Foudy is likely the odd man out. The team could look to deal him for whatever asset they can get in return – or risk sending him through waivers. I think there’s a pretty good chance he gets claimed as he’s still young and showed he might still have it towards the end of last season.
They could always keep Foudy around as the #13/14 forward and look to deal away Robinson, who could have a little more value on the trade market because of his resume. However this shakes down, the one player that I think is relatively safe in the discussion: Mathieu Olivier. They want to have a guy like that around for when the games start getting tough.
The decisions on defense aren’t really as difficult as the ones we had to make with the forwards. But all of that can change if one player proves he’s ready for the prime time.
Let’s start with the obvious move here. Tim Berni played 59 games for the Jackets last season, but in a perfect world, he’s about the 10th best option for this team right now. He’s still an RFA, but I expect his contract to be a two-way deal and he won’t require waivers; he’s our first cut.
This move leaves five players to compete for three jobs – the third defense pairing, and the 7th man. I do believe that Adam Boqvist is primed for a role on this team, so I have him as a top-four lock as of this moment. That’s fluid and could certainly change, but that’s how I see it right now. With that in mind, it’s really easy to work the back end out once you look at the role each player plays, their contract situation, and their shooting hand.
Jake Bean is on an NHL only contract and honestly, the left side/third pairing role is his to lose. After Berni, Zach Werenski, and Ivan Provorov, he’s the only left hand shooter that is realistically competing for a job. His shooting hand, puck moving ability and two-way game makes him the obvious choice to play on the third pairing; where sheltered minutes and a bigger, more physical partner should make him more than serviceable.
His partner will almost surely be Erik Gudbranson, whose $4m AAV means that he isn’t going anywhere, and he’ll have to play. He’ll never live up to that dollar amount, but he brings the requisite size, toughness and experience to an otherwise pretty young back end. If Erik and Jake can form any kind of chemistry, playing them 13-16 minutes a night is probably fine.
Which brings us to Andrew Peeke, who I have penciled in as the 7th man here. His three year $2.75m AAV contract kicked in this summer, and I don’t think that’s a terrible hit for a guy who can step in and out of the lineup as needed. He doesn’t bring the same kind of size or physicality that Gudbranson does; but he’s proven to be a shot blocking machine that can play up and down the lineup. That said, he’s also proven that playing him any more than third pairing minutes is a recipe for disaster – so I don’t see him beating out any of Gudbranson, Adam Boqvist, or Damon Severson for a job on the right side.
The final two cuts here are Nick Blankenburg and David Jiricek. Believe me, neither of these are easy guys to make cuts on – but, you can send both of them down and risk nothing. Blankenburg is on a two-way deal that does not require waivers. Ultimately, I think his grit, tenacity, and ability to play in all situations makes him a better guy to keep around than Peeke for that #7 role – but Peeke’s contract makes moving him to Cleveland a non-starter.
Jiricek is the wild card in all of this. If he shows up to camp and shows that he’s ready to play in the NHL full-time this year, the entire program on defense could change in a hurry. This could make a player like Boqvist redundant, which could lead to a bigger than expected trade – I don’t think they want to have either of these guys sitting in the press box for too long.
Boqvist’s value on the trade market would conceivably be pretty high; he’s a recent top-10 pick who was scoring at a terrific pace for a good chunk of last season. Which is why I have him starting the season on the top pairing. He and Werenski could give this team great transitional minutes, and provide a nice offensive spark.
So there you have it, our way-too-early roster prediction for the Blue Jackets. I don’t think this team is done making moves yet this summer, so maybe take it with a grain of salt. I think they’ll look to free up 1-2 spots up front by moving away some of their depth – and may do the same on defense, depending on their perception of who is ready to make an impact. For that reason, we’ll probably go through this again near the end of training camp. Either way, it will be fun to look back at this article in early October, to see how we did.