Columbus Blue Jackets: How Has Jarmo Done at the NHL Draft?

With the NHL Draft less than two weeks away, I decided that now would be a good time to look at how Blue Jacket GM Jarmo Kekalainen has fared in nine years of drafting with this organization. A well-noted talent evaluator, Jarmo has assembled a solid scouting staff here, one that I’m pretty quick to defend when they take heat.

But for the purpose of the article, we’ll break it down by the numbers. I broke this up into two different categories of evaluation; on the first hand, we have the 2013 through 2017 drafts broken down. Then, we’ll take a quick look at the 2018-22 drafts separately.

The reason for this? Once I started diving into the draft around 2018, it becomes difficult to classify NHL players from prospects or busts. For example, Nils Lundkvist doesn’t meet the metric I was trying to use to determine NHL players (100 games) … but, I think it’s safe to call him an NHL player. He’s just taken more time to get there, so it’s more common sense than pure numbers, when it comes to recent drafts.

For the first five years, I used a metric of 200 NHL games played, and factored in goaltenders on a case by case basis. Even as far back as 2013, you can find legitimate NHL goalies who have not played 200 games yet in their career (Cal Petersen is one example). My data probably isn’t perfect (I’m no mathematician), but it gives us enough of a baseline of percentages to get an honest outcome each year.

2013-2017 NHL Drafts by the numbers:

First round picks through these five years of the draft were really valuable. Teams hit at a percentage of 74.8%, which means that three out of every four picks made in the first round became at least regular NHL players (113 in total). The Jackets fared well below average here – making 7 picks through these 5 years, and only landing 4 NHL players (57%). Now, part of that metric is skewed by Jarmo’s first draft in 2013; where the team had three first round picks, but only netted one NHL player. This was before he was able to bring on his own scouting staff, so it’s hard to really hold this entirely against him.

The hits: Alexandre Wennberg (2013), Sonny Milano (2014), Zach Werenski (2015), Pierre-Luc Dubois. The misses: Kerby Rychel (2013), Marko Dano (2013), Gabriel Carlsson (2015).

First round grade: C. He hit on some really high picks, and had some clear misses later in the first round. The 2013 draft is especially painful here – picks made after some clear misses include Anthony Mantha, Shea Theodore, and JT Compher.

Teams with strong scouting will often find players after the first round. Really, if you’re picking after the first 15 spots in the first round; you have to nail some picks in later rounds to have successful drafts. The fact here is, the Jackets have done a really nice job after the first round – the numbers prove that.

Second round picks ran at a success rate of 35.2% during these 7 years (53 NHL players). This is where Jarmo’s drafting starts standing out: the Jackets hit at a 50% rate (3/6) during this span. While they haven’t found a superstar like Sebastian Aho, they have improved big time over the last few years, and are adding NHL players to the roster with picks in this range. I included Kevin Stenlund as a win because he spent most of his season in Winnipeg this year – but will admit that this is a fringe win.

The hits: Kevin Stenlund (2015), Andrew Peeke (2016), Alexandre Texier (2017). The misses: Dillon Heatherington (2013), Ryan Collins (2014), Paul Bittner (2015).

Second Round Grade: C. Peeke and Texier have become depth players, which is lovely. But two of the next five picks after Peeke were Jordan Kyrou and Alex Debrincat. So, there is that.

Third round picks have been another success story for the Jackets, especially when compared to the rest of the league. During this timeframe I could count only 22 NHL players picked in the third round, across the entire NHL (14.6%). Three of those – and maybe a fourth – were picked by the Blue Jackets, who hit on at least 50% of their picks over that time. Though again we have to note, the 2013 draft is an outlier here – Jarmo did not have his preferred staff yet. So, only partial credit here.

The hits: Oliver Bjorkstrand (2013), Elvis Merzlikins (2014), Keegan Kolesar (2015). Bonus: Daniil Tarasov. The misses: Vitaly Abramov (2016), Blake Siebenaler (2014).

Third round grade: A. Why an A, when there are only two guys on this list who became Blue Jackets? Well, Bjorkstrand is one of the best third round picks in the history of the franchise. But even if you discount him, they came away with two NHL goalies in this round. And, even though Keegan Kolesar and Vitaly Abramov didn’t play here, both were traded for key assets after the fact.

NHL teams have found 25 NHL players in the fourth round, slightly more on average than the third round (16.6%). The Jackets held only three fourth rounders over this time, but they found an NHL player with one of them – which puts them at a 33.3% success rate.

The hit: Emil Bemstrom (2017). The misses: Julian Pelletier (2014), Nick Moutrey (2013).

Grade: C. Bemstrom may be a 4A player, but with only three picks in this range, that’s a win. The one that really hurts here is 2014, when Devon Toews was picked one slot behind Julian Pelletier.

Finding players in the last three rounds of the draft is far from a fine science. Often, you’re taking players with big question marks and hoping you can develop them to move past those question marks. It’s a real crap shoot with the final 100 or so picks in the draft.

The Jackets held only four fifth round picks over the five years in question – netting 0 NHL players. The league average during this time is 10.6% (16 players), but for some reason, it’s a round that the Jackets just haven’t had success to this point.

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The misses: Tyler Bird (2014), Sam Ruopp, Veeti Vainio (2015), Kale Howarth (2017). Fifth round grade: F.

The sixth round of the draft has been slightly better, with the Jackets finding one player out of five picks (20%). The NHL average drops all the way down to 7% (11 players) for this round, so having a success story here is great. He’s one of the better sixth round hits in that time; and they have another one that’s a fringe player here.

The hit: Vladislav Gavrikov (2015). The misses: Markus Soberg (2013), Peter Thome (2016), Jonathan Davidsson, Carson Meyer* (2017). (*could still be an NHL player). Sixth round grade: B

The seventh round is even more bleak for NHL teams, with just 8 players plucked from that round in five drafts (5%). The Jackets have one of them, after making 5 picks over that span (20% success rate). It’s really hard to complain when a pick in this round works out, even if they “only” become a depth piece.

The hit: Markus Nutivaara (2015). The misses: Peter Quenneville (2013), Olivier Leblanc (2014), Calvin Thurkauf (2016), Robbie Stucker (2017). Seventh round grade: C+

If we go through the NHL drafts from 2018-2022, I really like what the Jackets have done. We can’t compare the numbers here in a fair way because a lot of guys from these drafts – yes, even as far back as 2018 – are still making their way to the NHL. But, we do start to get an idea of how the Jacket prospects are faring.

In 2018, the team made six picks, beginning with Liam Foudy at #18 overall. A known project pick at the time, Foudy finally seems to have found his way into the NHL, albeit in a bottom-six role. The upcoming season is a big one for him to show that he belongs – or we may have to look back at this as a missed pick.

Fortunately, the Jackets seem to have hit an out of the ballpark home run with their second round pick, nabbing Kirill Marchenko with pick #49. He finally made it over to North America this season, and by the end of the year, sure looked like a core piece of this team for the foreseeable future.

They have two clear misses from this draft: forward Marcus Karlberg (3rd round, pick #80) and goaltender Veini Vehvilainen (6th round, #173). But, another 6th round pick (#159), Tim Berni, sure looked like he could be a player this season – though he does need more seasoning. And, Trey Fix-Wolansky was the team’s last pick in the draft (7th round, #204) – he’s dominated the AHL, and with his pesky style and scoring touch, could still be a good NHL player as well. This draft is on track to be a nice win.