Columbus Blue Jackets: How Has Jarmo Done at the NHL Draft?

With the NHL Draft less than two weeks away, I decided that now would be a good time to look at how Blue Jacket GM Jarmo Kekalainen has fared in nine years of drafting with this organization. A well-noted talent evaluator, Jarmo has assembled a solid scouting staff here, one that I’m pretty quick to defend when they take heat.

But for the purpose of the article, we’ll break it down by the numbers. I broke this up into two different categories of evaluation; on the first hand, we have the 2013 through 2017 drafts broken down. Then, we’ll take a quick look at the 2018-22 drafts separately.

The reason for this? Once I started diving into the draft around 2018, it becomes difficult to classify NHL players from prospects or busts. For example, Nils Lundkvist doesn’t meet the metric I was trying to use to determine NHL players (100 games) … but, I think it’s safe to call him an NHL player. He’s just taken more time to get there, so it’s more common sense than pure numbers, when it comes to recent drafts.

Jun 24, 2016; Buffalo, NY, USA; Pierre-Luc Dubois poses for a photo with team officials after being selected as the number three overall draft pick by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round of the 2016 NHL Draft at the First Niagra Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

For the first five years, I used a metric of 200 NHL games played, and factored in goaltenders on a case by case basis. Even as far back as 2013, you can find legitimate NHL goalies who have not played 200 games yet in their career (Cal Petersen is one example). My data probably isn’t perfect (I’m no mathematician), but it gives us enough of a baseline of percentages to get an honest outcome each year.

2013-2017 NHL Drafts by the numbers:

First round picks through these five years of the draft were really valuable. Teams hit at a percentage of 74.8%, which means that three out of every four picks made in the first round became at least regular NHL players (113 in total). The Jackets fared well below average here – making 7 picks through these 5 years, and only landing 4 NHL players (57%). Now, part of that metric is skewed by Jarmo’s first draft in 2013; where the team had three first round picks, but only netted one NHL player. This was before he was able to bring on his own scouting staff, so it’s hard to really hold this entirely against him.

Jun 30, 2013; Newark, NJ, USA; Alexander Wennberg poses for a photo with team officials after being introduced as the number fourteen overall pick to the Columbus Blue Jackets during the 2013 NHL Draft at the Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

The hits: Alexandre Wennberg (2013), Sonny Milano (2014), Zach Werenski (2015), Pierre-Luc Dubois. The misses: Kerby Rychel (2013), Marko Dano (2013), Gabriel Carlsson (2015).

First round grade: C. He hit on some really high picks, and had some clear misses later in the first round. The 2013 draft is especially painful here – picks made after some clear misses include Anthony Mantha, Shea Theodore, and JT Compher.