Pump the Brakes on the Bo Horvat Trade Rumors

It seems like the only way this trade goes down from a Jackets perspective, is if two criteria are met..

The Canucks are probably asking for a huge return on Horvat. They’re in a similar situation as the Blue Jackets: they have a young core that is performing below their expectations this season, and will be looking to improve their team for next year and beyond.

In short, they’ll want age appropriate, NHL ready (or close to ready) prospects. They’re going to be asking for some combination of a top prospect, a first round pick, and a young player off of the roster. They are going to swing for the fences and ask for Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, or Yegor Chinakhov right away. Maybe then they’ll back off and ask for a David Jiricek or Denton Mateychuk as the centerpiece of the deal.

I don’t see that happening. The Jackets are likely to counter with a second tier prospect like Stanislav Svozil or Mikael Pyythia, then try to sweeten the pot with an extra draft pick. Would that be enough to get the Canucks to part with Horvat? Probably not. They would likely get outbid by a contending team, maybe one with key injuries down the middle or needing to upgrade center depth.

We have to remember that Jarmo Kekalainen has a pretty good trade history. He’s not likely going to get fleeced in a deal like this – especially not in a season that is basically free play at this point, as the team stumbled out of the gates and then found itself in IR hell. Do you really try to immediately improve a roster that won’t have its top defenseman again this season?

One thing that is absolutely certain: zero chance he gives up that 2023 first round pick, which could alter the course of this franchise for the next decade.

It seems like the only way this trade goes down from a Jackets perspective, is if two criteria are met: first, the Jackets don’t give up their first round pick, or any of their top prospects (Johnson, Sillinger, Chinakhov, Jiricek, Mateychuk, Corson Ceulemans, Kirill Marchenko, Daniil Tarasov, Jordan Dumais, Luca del bel Belluz). And second, this has to come with a contract extension to Horvat in hand. One that works for the Jackets long-term, and allows them to keep the core group here together.

To be honest, I really don’t see it happening. While I could see someone like Ceulemans being worked into a deal if it made sense, I think his future value to the Blue Jackets might be greater than his perceived trade value on the open market. The package here is probably something like: tier B prospect (Svozil); cap clearing piece (Jack Roslovic?), protected 2024 first round pick, and another mid-round pick. Or, instead of that mid-round pick, you throw in another young roster piece like Liam Foudy or Emil Bemstrom. All of that together likely doesn’t tip the scales for the Canucks.

Johnny Hockey signing here changed a lot of things, but what really hasn’t changed is the competition window for this team. Their best seasons are probably 2-3 years from now, when the core pieces have been together for awhile and their top prospects are ready to make an impact. Adding Bo Horvat now, doesn’t change that timeline.