Pump the Brakes on the Bo Horvat Trade Rumors
It’s that time of year in the hockey world, when snow has begun to fall in many places and we prep for the holidays. Teams have settled into their schedules in earnest, and we have a more clear idea of the contenders, pretenders, and lottery teams around the league. It’s also around this time when the trade rumors start to swirl. For the Blue Jackets, the current gossip surrounds Vancouver Canucks center Bo Horvat.
Why it’s a good idea to trade for Bo Horvat…
First, let’s take a look at the player. Originally selected by the Canucks with their 1st round pick (#9 overall) at the 2011 NHL Draft, Horvat is in his 9th season in the NHL. He’s spent the last 4 seasons as captain of the Canucks, and has developed into a very good two-way, middle six center in the NHL.
He’s a veteran of 589 NHL games, with 184 goals, 386 points, and 194 penalty minutes in his career. The issue at hand: he’s the third best center on the Canucks, behind superstar Elias Pettersson (signed through next season for $7.35M AAV) and JT Miller (signed through 2029-30, $8M AAV beginning next year); and he wants a big raise over his current cap hit of $5.5M.
The appeal for the Blue Jackets is obvious. He’s a quality NHL center, and we don’t have many of those in Columbus. Currently we have our veteran third line left wing (Boone Jenner) centering our top line. Our second line center (Jack Roslovic) was recently a healthy scratch, and never left the bench for most of the third period last night. Our third line center (Cole Sillinger) is probably the best we have; but he’s only 19. Sean Kuraly, on the fourth line, is probably the only player we have down the middle who is actually suited for his active role.
No doubt, this is an issue. A trade for Bo Horvat would give the team a guy who can probably center Patrik Laine and Johnny Gaudreau on the top line, and help the team stem the tide until some of their prospects are ready. His skill, leadership, and play style definitely fits in here. At 27 years old, he even fits the age range to play with Gaudreau for the next several years.
But, that isn’t to say everything would be perfect. There are a few concerns I would have with acquiring Bo Horvat, and it’s important that we temper our expectations. This trade has to work for both sides…
…someone who can at least keep pace with Gaudreau and Laine, and provide some two-way ability. Horvat can do all of that.
The biggest concern with making a trade like this, is what you’ll have to send the other way to make it happen. Now, I will never claim to be an insider or to have any knowledge of what’s actually going on behind the scenes, so this is merely speculation on my part. But, my gut says this player will not come cheap, even though he’s on an expiring deal.
The fact of the matter is, Horvat is a very important player for the Canucks. They aren’t going to sell their captain off for pennies on the dollar. Exacerbating this thought: his red hot start to the season. He has 14 goals and 20 points in 17 games played thus far. That’s an impressive pace for any player, but especially for a guy playing on a team that is struggling.
Part of his success is that he’s shooting at a rate that isn’t sustainable (21.9%). His career average is pretty high compared to most players (13.5%), but there will be some regression to his goal scoring pace at some point. That said, he’s a consistent 50-60 point threat, who wins faceoffs and does a lot of the little things well enough to make him well worth the contract he’s seeking.
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But the Canucks probably don’t want his dollar value to be anywhere close to Pettersson or Miller. They have the luxury of using him on their third line, and I would imagine they’d like to pay him accordingly. Sometimes a player wants a bigger role and more money, and early indications are that Horvat would rather test the market than sign a team-friendly deal to remain in Vancouver. Who can blame him?
It’s important to note that while he would immediately become the best center we have in Columbus, he’s probably best suited as a #2 center on a contending team. So in that regard, he does not solve our long desired top line center need. With the talent on the wings, it’s debatable that we probably don’t need an elite center here, just an upgrade; someone who can at least keep pace with Gaudreau and Laine, and provide some two-way ability. Horvat can do all of that.
The problem with that: while he’s their third line center, the Canucks know all of this too. They know the Jackets need centers. They know Horvat is a rare commodity, the kind of player who rarely becomes available for a mid-season trade. They will get interest from every team looking to upgrade down the middle, which is going to drive the price way up.
It seems like the only way this trade goes down from a Jackets perspective, is if two criteria are met..
The Canucks are probably asking for a huge return on Horvat. They’re in a similar situation as the Blue Jackets: they have a young core that is performing below their expectations this season, and will be looking to improve their team for next year and beyond.
In short, they’ll want age appropriate, NHL ready (or close to ready) prospects. They’re going to be asking for some combination of a top prospect, a first round pick, and a young player off of the roster. They are going to swing for the fences and ask for Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, or Yegor Chinakhov right away. Maybe then they’ll back off and ask for a David Jiricek or Denton Mateychuk as the centerpiece of the deal.
I don’t see that happening. The Jackets are likely to counter with a second tier prospect like Stanislav Svozil or Mikael Pyythia, then try to sweeten the pot with an extra draft pick. Would that be enough to get the Canucks to part with Horvat? Probably not. They would likely get outbid by a contending team, maybe one with key injuries down the middle or needing to upgrade center depth.
We have to remember that Jarmo Kekalainen has a pretty good trade history. He’s not likely going to get fleeced in a deal like this – especially not in a season that is basically free play at this point, as the team stumbled out of the gates and then found itself in IR hell. Do you really try to immediately improve a roster that won’t have its top defenseman again this season?
One thing that is absolutely certain: zero chance he gives up that 2023 first round pick, which could alter the course of this franchise for the next decade.
It seems like the only way this trade goes down from a Jackets perspective, is if two criteria are met: first, the Jackets don’t give up their first round pick, or any of their top prospects (Johnson, Sillinger, Chinakhov, Jiricek, Mateychuk, Corson Ceulemans, Kirill Marchenko, Daniil Tarasov, Jordan Dumais, Luca del bel Belluz). And second, this has to come with a contract extension to Horvat in hand. One that works for the Jackets long-term, and allows them to keep the core group here together.
To be honest, I really don’t see it happening. While I could see someone like Ceulemans being worked into a deal if it made sense, I think his future value to the Blue Jackets might be greater than his perceived trade value on the open market. The package here is probably something like: tier B prospect (Svozil); cap clearing piece (Jack Roslovic?), protected 2024 first round pick, and another mid-round pick. Or, instead of that mid-round pick, you throw in another young roster piece like Liam Foudy or Emil Bemstrom. All of that together likely doesn’t tip the scales for the Canucks.
Johnny Hockey signing here changed a lot of things, but what really hasn’t changed is the competition window for this team. Their best seasons are probably 2-3 years from now, when the core pieces have been together for awhile and their top prospects are ready to make an impact. Adding Bo Horvat now, doesn’t change that timeline.
Next. Revisiting the Max Domi for Josh Anderson Trade. dark