Are the Wheels Off for the Blue Jackets?
The Blue Jackets dropped both games in Finland over the weekend, by scores of 6-3 and 5-1. The team has now lost 5 games in a row, being outscored by a combined 28-8 in the process. The wheels may very well be falling off; but can the season still be salvaged?
The results are far less than what the team hoped for when they signed up to take part in the NHL’s Global Series. These games were supposed to showcase the finest players to the European market. Both teams have superstar Finnish talent, that the fans were clamoring to see. The Blue Jackets are have even been assembled by a Finnish GM. What’s not to love?
Well, for starters, the Blue Jackets are a complete mess right now. They’re mired in the worst stretch of play I can ever remember seeing; and that says a lot for this franchise. Averaging just 1.6 goals for per game, while surrendering 5.6 against over the last two weeks, is all you really need to know about their current situation.
The Avalanche are clearly the superior team, both on paper and in performance … but the gap isn’t as vast as the outcome of these games. While the Jackets did play better than in their previous three outings, they still got walloped in both games.
The offense looks disjointed. The defense, completely not working. Goaltending is a complete mess, regardless who is in the cage. This looks like a team that has given up, just 12 games into the season.
They added one of the best offensive players in the world, and should be taking steps forward this season. Instead, they’re sputtering…
In my opinion, everyone has to share the blame for this situation. It starts with the GM, Jarmo Kekalainen, who has assembled a very talented team, but one that lacks talent in very key positions. There is nobody on this roster capable of playing center on the top line, and arguably the second line as well. Jack Roslovic is the most skilled guy we have down the middle, and he’s probably best suited in a third line role on a contending team. That’s not good.
The talent on defense looks good on paper, but there’s too much offense and not enough guys to take away time and space, or block shots. Let’s face it: offseason signing Erik Gudbranson is everything he was advertised to be, and that’s not a positive endorsement. He’s a bottom pairing guy at best, who was signed and is being utilized in a role he’s not capable of filling. Also, where is this physicality he’s supposed to bring? At least Mathieu Olivier is trying:
What salvages things for Jarmo here is that, while there are massive holes in the roster, he’s built a squad loaded with talent, and there are prospects coming along that should be capable of filling some of those roster holes. In my opinion, his job is relatively safe at this time.
The coaching staff, on the other hand? Not so much. Brad Larsen and his assistants have to shoulder a huge amount of this blame. While they’re in need of more top end talent on this team, it’s one that finished roughly .500 last season, with 81 points. They added one of the best offensive players in the world, and should be taking steps forward this season. Instead, they’re sputtering and look like a collection of players playing different styles, shift by shift. That’s on the coaching staff.
If you have watched the games, it’s clear that the players aren’t responding. Whether it’s a culture thing or a systems issue, there are serious disconnects going on here. They simply look like they don’t care, and in the end, that’s a culture you do not want creeping into any locker room – but especially one that’s loaded with young talent.
If they were losing games 3-2, 4-2, 2-1, etc … it’s one thing. But to be getting walked on a night by night basis, is unacceptable. A goal differential of -25 through 12 games is ridiculous, even for a team that is still very young. For this reason, I think the hottest seats in the organization, are behind the CBJ bench.
Well #CBJ fans...
— Union and Blue (@UnionAndBlue) November 5, 2022
Does Brad Larsen survive the week?
The question then becomes: who takes over? It’s hard to find coaches this time of year; the really good ones generally all have jobs. On a personal level, I’m definitely not calling for Brad Larsen to be fired. I think he’s a great guy and I hope he can steer it back in the right direction. But, it’s a results driven industry, and the results right now are ugly.
…the offense as a whole just seems to have no chemistry.
Lest we forget, hockey is not played by the GM, or by the coaching staff. Jarmo assembled a roster that is spent basically right up to the NHL’s salary cap, so they should at least be able to hold serve. But here we are, watching a team that sits 32nd overall, with the worst goal differential in the NHL. There is a ton to talk about in regards to how the roster is performing.
Down the middle, the leading scorers at center are Boone Jenner (2g-4a-6p, 12gp) and Jack Roslovic (1g-5a-6p, 12gp). These are middle six numbers in the NHL. Cole Sillinger, probably the best true center on the team, has been completely invisible for long stretches, and has just 2 assists in 12 games this season.
The four centers have combined for just 5 goals and 18 points through 12 games. Putting things into perspective, Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon has 19 points on his own. While there isn’t anybody on this roster that is capable of putting up those kind of numbers, someone has to at least be able to skate between Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine on the top line. Even a marginal player should be good for 50-60 points over the course of a full season between two superstar wingers. But nobody has settled into that role, and the team basically has two weapons with no ammo on the top line.
On the wings, the team oozes talent … but outside of Gaudreau, Kent Johnson, and Yegor Chinahkov, it’s a group that seems to be underperforming offensively. Jakub Voracek and Gustav Nyquist are both showing signs of aging, and the offense as a whole just seems to have no chemistry. They finally found success on the power-play over the weekend, but still sit dead last with just a 6% success rate on the season – a full 5% behind the nearest competitor. With this collection of talent, they should be well in the upper half of the league with the man advantage.
One method of changing the roster might include dealing from their position of strength – in this case, on the wings – to help bolster other areas of the roster. The old fashioned hockey trade is rare, but should they go this route, Liam Foudy has shown very capable of playing in a depth role, and it would free up a spot for guys who deserve a chance, like Kirill Marchenko or even Emil Bemstrom. They have depth here.
Looking at the defense, on paper this is a group that should be able to at least give the team a chance. But the change in scheme this season seems to have confused everyone, and they are really struggling in their own end. One could argue that a true #1 defenseman is yet to be found here, and every player on the back end for the Blue Jackets is playing a role they’re not qualified for.
That isn’t to say they’re terrible, and clearly Zach Werenski is a top pairing guy. But is he a true #1? Vladislav Gavrikov is a second pairing guy, and Andrew Peeke is good enough on this tandem as long as the game is kept simple. But aside from those three, it’s rookie Nick Blankenburg forced into top pairing minutes. Jake Bean hasn’t been terrible, but there are times when he does look lost.
Gudbranson is taking key defensive zone shifts against top opposition, when he’s probably better suited facing third and fourth line players. Sending half of your defensemen out in roles they’re not capable of filling, is not ideal. Still, they should be able to keep the shot totals in check a lot more effectively than they have so far. Which leads us to the next issue.
A lot of the issues in goal can be covered up by an improved defense …
The goalies have all struggled, but I don’t think this situation is as dire as it’s being made out to be. Picture it this way: Elvis Merzlikins is an emotional guy, who wears his heart right on his sleeve. He makes 19(!) saves in the first period, keeping the score a very reasonable 1-0 at the first intermission, behind a team that outright didn’t show up. They still had a chance because he bailed them out. But they remained almost comically flat. What does that kind of pressure do to such an emotional guy?
It’s obvious. He made 46 saves in this game, but was clearly frustrated and begging to be pulled by the end of it. Yes, he gave up a couple of soft goals, but how many times did he bail the team out in the first period alone? At some point, they have to return the favor and bail him out. The fanbase blasts him every time the team loses because he gives up one or two soft goals. But in reality, we should be asking why the Devils were allowed to take 93 shots towards him.
Maybe we should also be asking why was there no push back offensively? Do we put Laine and Gaudreau on blast every time they finish a game with zero points? Blaming a 7-1 loss on the goalie isn’t fair, when the opposing team was allowed to play a game uncontested. While each guy has given up ugly goals at times, the team in front of them has to be better and help them out.
Once Elvis finds his mojo, and Joonas Korpisalo gets back up to speed, the situation here can be middle of the pack. A lot of the issues in goal can be covered up by an improved defense … which leads us right back to coaching. The coaches can help these goalies out, by making the team more accountable defensively.
Far too often we’re seeing players untouched in front of the net, or odd-man rushes, cross-zone passes. It’s a recipe for failure all around. They need to find a style of defense that the players understand, and then make all 5 guys on the ice accountable for their coverage in the D zone. They have the skill to outscore a lot of their problems if they just play as a team.
While there isn’t one easy button to press to fix the situation here, it has to start with accountability from top to bottom. Coaches have to coach. Scorers have to score. Defenders have to defend. Goalies have to make saves. Enforcers have to enforce. None of that is happening right now, and the record reflects it. You can’t trade the entire roster, so the coaching staff and management has to figure out how to get more out of this team. Preferably soon, rather than later.
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