The Future of the CBJ Defense Corps

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 05: Zach Werenski #8 of the Columbus Blue Jackets challenge for the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center on April 05, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 05: Zach Werenski #8 of the Columbus Blue Jackets challenge for the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center on April 05, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
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The Blue Jackets signed Andrew Peeke on Tuesday to a three year contract extension, which keeps him locked up through the 2025-26 season. While the announcement was far more controversial than we expected, this seems like a solid deal for the club, locking down a guy who played top pairing minutes, for third pairing dollars. But now that he’s signed, what does this signal for the future of the Blue Jacket blueline?

We’ve talked a bit about the team’s likely corps heading into this season; the depth chart is likely as follows: Zach Werenski, Vladislav Gavrikov, Adam Boqvist, Andrew Peeke, Erik Gudbranson, Jake Bean, and Nick Blankenburg. This is assuming one of the team’s prospects doesn’t make the club, of course. Gavin Bayreuther, Marcus Bjork and Jake Christiansen seem primed to be the team’s first callups when opportunity arises, while Ben Harpur still stands an outside chance of earning a contract with the team to provide even more depth.

Zach Werenski (#8) (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
Zach Werenski (#8) (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images) /

Of that group, there are six players signed beyond next season: Werenski (until 2028), Boqvist (2025), Peeke (2026), Gudbranson (2026), Bean (2024), and Blankenburg (2025). Christiansen and Bjork will both become restricted free agents next summer, while Bayreuther and Gavrikov are slated to hit the open market as UFAs.

Waiting in the wings are some very talented prospects: Corson Ceulemans, David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk, and Stanislav Svozil all seem like standout talents who will be looking to crack the lineup at some point in the near future. This doesn’t even factor in prospects like Ole Bjorgvik-Holm or Samuel Knazko, who could also battle for a roster spot at some point. In short, what you have here is a logjam.

What happens in the immediate future?

I think it will be easy for the club to write Bayreuther off after this season. He’s a quality player but seems like a classic ‘tweener – too good for the AHL, not good enough to play consistently in the NHL. Bjork is a bit of an unknown, so it’s too early to make any kind of statement there other than “we’ll see”. But with the prospects being injected into this system, it’s hard to keep guys around who aren’t pushing and contending for spots, and I have not seen it yet.

Jake Christiansen (#32) Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Jake Christiansen (#32) Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports /

Jake Christiansen is an interesting case because he’s still developing and looks the part of an NHL defenseman. I don’t think the team lets him walk for nothing, but I also don’t see him being in a hurry to re-up and play in the AHL. I think he could be a trade chip if nothing else, but it won’t be until later in the year – or even next summer. They would only deal this player away if they felt a player like Knazko or Svozil can replace him at the AHL level, so they can develop further.

Which brings us to the last player who will wear Union Blue this season: Vladislav Gavrikov. Simply put, I have a really hard time seeing this team moving on from this player at this point. If they are in a playoff race by the trade deadline, it will probably be because Vlad is part of a good shutdown pairing, and you can’t trade a guy when you’re in the hunt. If they’re well out of the playoff race, it becomes anyone’s guess … but then you trade away a player that you will immediately need to replace if you’re going to make a push next season or beyond.

There aren’t any prospects in the system who can replace the kind of defense that Gavrikov brings immediately. If you are looking to trade for a player like that, you’re giving up big assets. Personally, I’d rather see the team extend him, and use those assets to fill other holes in the lineup. You can’t come into the 2023-24 season even younger on defense, in my opinion. Trading him now means you’re gaining more picks and prospects for the reload … and that’s when this club should be looking to flip the switch and become serious contenders for a playoff spot. For these reasons, I think they use the money coming off of the books from Gustav Nyquist, to keep Gavrikov around for a few seasons.

What happens in 2 or 3 years?

It really depends on how quickly the prospects develop. If they go through the summer of 2023 and see that David Jiricek is ready to win a spot out of camp, they can make a move. If Corson Ceuelemans reaches the same timeline? They can make another move. But, I don’t really see a world where both of these guys – let alone both of these guys, and Denton Mateychuk, and Stanislav Svozil (etc), are going to join the team and make immediate impacts. So you have to keep quality guys around until they prove they’re ready.

Sep 28, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Denton Mateychuk (5) skates against the Buffalo Sabres in the third period at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 28, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Denton Mateychuk (5) skates against the Buffalo Sabres in the third period at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /

The thing about signing guys to good contracts is, you can always trade from a position of strength. Assuming Jiricek is going to be ready next season, I think it would be possible to move on from a player like Nick Blankenburg, Jake Bean, or even Adam Boqvist. The best thing that could happen for this team would be all three of these guys exceeding expectations this year and making a trade difficult – but if any of them flounder, they become the obvious man out. Then you can fall back on one of the top defense prospects in hockey maybe joining the team next year. All three of these players are signed to really good, inexpensive bridge contracts.

But they may not have to do anything at all…

If you followed along with our top prospects list over the summer, we have professional ETAs listed for Jiricek (2023), Ceulemans (2023), Mateychuk (2024), and Svozil (2023). I think each of these guys could see NHL time in those years, but remembering that the learning curve for defensemen can be slow means that they may all need time to season in the AHL. This is all best case scenario; it’s possible that one or more of these guys could need 1-2 full seasons in the AHL to develop into NHL regulars. And that’s perfectly fine.

Sep 28, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Buffalo Sabres left wing Linus Weissbach (65) skates for the puck against Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov (4) in the third period at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 28, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Buffalo Sabres left wing Linus Weissbach (65) skates for the puck against Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov (4) in the third period at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /

If they came back next season with the same 7 defensemen, that’s probably okay – we just have to hope they’ve improved enough to make this team better. Which, in a world where they’ve extended Gavrikov and kept the gang around, probably is the case.

Beyond that, the only defensemen signed for the 2024-25 season currently? Werenski, Gudbranson, Boqvist, and Peeke. Signing Gavrikov to a 3 or 4 year extension and adding him to that group, means you have five guys with experience, one guy (Jiricek) ready for the big time, and can fill in the #7 guy either from that list of prospects, a secondary prospect like Knazko or Bjorgvik-Holm, or from another source.

This is when the team should be looking to take a step forward. If Jiricek were to step in and take over a top-4 role, you’re pushing someone like Peeke down the lineup and into a more suitable role. The group looks something like this:

Werenski – Jiricek

Gavrikov – Boqvist

Peeke – Gudbranson

Borgvik-Holm/whoever

Maybe at that point Erik Gudbranson is forced out as the #7 guy? That would make room for a guy like Ceulemans, if he were ready.But then you have an experienced player around in case the games get physical, or should injuries occur. And, with two guys on ELC deals, you can afford to fit him under the cap.

In the end, I don’t see how the team signing Andrew Peeke to third pairing money, changes the long-term plans here. This is still a talented prospects group, but they are likely at least 1-2 years away from even competing for NHL ice time. As Jarmo has said again and again: you can never have too many quality defensemen.

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