CBJ Offseason Gameplan
After a season in which the Blue Jackets missed the playoffs, the team finds itself in need of upgrades in key positions. A rapid turnover of the roster resulted in the club’s identity changing; going from that of a tight checking, defensively responsible group, to a high-scoring, exciting to watch team. Unfortunately, though the club scored a team record 262 goals for; they also surrendered 300 against. Reducing the number of goals against will be top priority this offseason, and there are a couple of obvious areas of need.
The issue with adding to the roster? GM Jarmo Kekalainen has done a terrific job and the roster is loaded with NHL talent. The depth on this team is pretty strong, but they need to upgrade the roster defensively, and at center. Secondary to these needs are size and a physical presence; by this point we’re well aware that the team got pushed around last year and are looking to change that. Today we’ll take a look at some ways the Blue Jackets can improve their roster, while clearing some of the logjams that may prevent the growth of younger players.
Defense
While there is plenty of talent on the blue line, the Blue Jackets had the youngest defense corps in the entire NHL last year. Starting the year led by Zach Werenski’s 335 games played (Vladislav Gavrikov sat second, with 124gp), the team entered the season with an eye on development and progress. While there was marked improvement across the board, an outside observer might notice that the mix just isn’t right for this group and something has to change.
In short, it’s almost all offense from the back end. With Werenski, Adam Boqvist, Jake Bean, and newcomer Nick Blankenburg all vying for minutes in offensive situations – you’re left with only two capable defensive defensemen in Gavrikov and Andrew Peeke. That isn’t to say that the four players mentioned are terrible defensively, they just haven’t all developed that portion of their game yet. Bean and Boqvist both struggled in fact, with Blankenburg surpassing them both quickly on the depth chart (within just a couple of games), because his play defensively stood out.
Moving forward, I think you have four players that are obviously going to be in the plans long-term: Werenski, Gavrikov, Peeke, and Blankenburg. At some point, it seems like the team will have to make a decision between Adam Boqvist and Jake Bean. Now, that decision doesn’t necessarily have to happen this offseason … but the progress of this roster in the “reload” dictates that it just might. This is a group that’s going to be on the winning track soon, and a big missing component of that is a veteran physical, stay at home defenseman. That player needs a place to play, which creates an interesting issue on the blue line.
Factoring in Jake Christiansen further complicates things, as he’s a capable, puck moving, close to NHL ready defenseman. If Simon Nemec or David Jiricek are picked sixth overall, suddenly the outlook changes again. Could Christiansen or a top prospect emerge and make someone on the bottom pairing expendable?
Things are a little more tricky up front. The Blue Jackets are loaded with quality wingers; in fact I count no less than 12 who will realistically be competing for roster spots on opening night (assuming the RFAs are signed): Jakub Voracek, Gustav Nyquist, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Eric Robinson, Yegor Chinakhov, Kent Johnson, Emil Bemstrom (RFA), Patrik Laine (RFA), Alexandre Texier, Kirill Marchenko, Liam Foudy, and Trey Fix-Wolansky (RFA).
Now, it would be easy to write off guys like Foudy or Fix-Wolansky – both have had injury troubles and may need some game experience in the AHL, before a call-up later in the season. But, that still leaves you with 10 players battling it out for what will probably be, 9 roster spots. Who else do you exclude from that group? Bemstrom could use a change of scenery is probably the most obvious, and may be an easy player to trade based on his performance internationally. But even so, you’re healthy scratching one of Marchenko, Johnson, Chinakhov, or Robinson on a nightly basis. It’s a good problem to have, but that’s not ideal for the player that is sitting. All of these guys should be playing and developing as much as possible.
Looking at the centers, it’s a slightly different issue. There’s plenty of depth here, but no real top end talent: Boone Jenner, Jack Roslovic, Cole Sillinger, Sean Kuraly, and Justin Danforth. One could argue that Kent Johnson might be included in this group rather than the wings, but I’m not sure he’s ready to be a full-time NHL center.
Is there a top line center out of that group? I don’t see it. Jenner was strong in his role last year, but ideally I still think he’s best as a left wing. Which only adds to the depth and confusion on the wings. Roslovic recently signed a team-friendly two-year deal, and was fantastic in stretches where he produced like a middle-six center, but also disappeared for long periods of time, including a 15 game stretch to start the season with just four assists. Sillinger will be expected to take a step forward in his production, but even so I think he’s still just a third line player at this point, and at his peak, I think he’ll be a second liner. Kuraly and Danforth are fine in depth roles – though Danforth may also be better suited on the wing, giving the team a strong fourth line with Kuraly and Robinson.
In the end, you have 17 skaters vying for 14 roster spots. Which is fine if you subtract Bemstrom, Foudy, and Fix-Wolansky. But, you still have a glaring need for a top line center, and will have some pretty good players sitting in the press boxes when the lineup is healthy.
A free agency splash seems imminent, if the team is going to look to fix these issues in the immediate future. They should have the cap space, and it’s been made clear that this team will be stronger and better defensively next season.
There are a few very good centers currently slated for free agency: Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Patrice Bergeron, Vincent Trochek, Nazem Kadri, or Ryan Strome all jump off the page. But the issue here is two fold; none of these players fit into the competitive age group to play for this team long term. And, I see it as unlikely that any of these players would be attracted to Columbus, to play for a team that’s likely 2-3 years away from contending.
More likely, I expect those free agency dollars to be spent on correcting the size and defense depth issues. Josh Manson, Colin Miller, Nikita Zadorov, Erik Gudbransson, Brett Kulak, Jan Ruutta and Ilya Lyubushkin all come to mind.
They will have to outbid other teams, but I think Manson could be a great solution on the back end. Coming off of a Cup win, he’s big, plays physical, is solid defensively, and would bring a veteran presence to the back end. He’s 30 years old, so it’s possible that he only has a few good years left; but that would buy time for the team’s prospects to develop. Giving a player like Corson Ceulemans an additional year or two of development, could make a big difference in how he turns out as an NHL player.
What I don’t see, is this team making a splash with someone like Johnny Gaudreau or Filip Forsberg. They’re in pretty good shape as far as scoring wingers go, several of them being young, high end prospects who are ready to see NHL ice. In the end, I expect the free agency splash to “underwhelm” a lot of fans, but correct key areas of the lineup. They did this last summer with Sean Kuraly, who was brought leadership and an energetic spark to the young lineup.
The more likely option, if the team is going to find a quality center that can play with this group longer term: a big trade. And as they say, to get good players, you have to give up good players. Fortunately for the Blue Jackets, there is no better time for a massive trade that could alter the course of the franchise. Whether it takes place or not is yet to be seen, but they have the assets to do it, and Jarmo has done it in the past.
When you look at the current construction of the roster, there are some obvious players that could be used to upgrade the team in other positions. I’m not talking about Emil Bemstrom (who I fully expect to be dealt for a draft pick), or Eric Robinson (you need depth players here). I think this is the kind of offseason where we’ll see a trade that will shake this roster’s core up, with an eye towards a top defenseman to play alongside Zach Werenski – or, more likely, an age-similar center to play with Patrik Laine and Kent Johnson on the team’s top line.
My hot take? There are two players who I have a hard time placing in the lineup long term. I think these two players will be (or already have been) passed up by younger, less expensive talent. And, I think they are luxury depth pieces here, that could be valuable to cap strapped teams, who may need to add depth and shed current, or future salary. In a flat cap world, these guys are still team controlled for another 1-2 years, giving a Cup contender some quality young depth to put right into their lineup.
I’m talking about Alexandre Texier and Jake Bean. As mentioned at the offset of the article, Bean is a player that is buried and might be held back by playing for the Blue Jackets. He’s at least third on the depth chart both for left defensemen (Zach Werenski, Vladislav Gavrikov), and for power play time, behind Werenski and Adam Boqvist. He’s not awful defensively, but he still needs time to mature and get stronger, but even in his prime I don’t see him as a shutdown player. That said, he’s better than third pairing minutes, and could be a great addition to a team needing a second power play quarterback.
Texier was flying high and looked to be breaking out, before a broken finger and personal situation sidelined him for the last half of the 2021-22 season. But he hasn’t been consistent enough at center, and certainly looked more comfortable on the wing, when the game was simplified for him. He’s a good young player who could be a 20 goal, 50 point guy in the NHL … but as a winger. For a team carrying so many talented young wingers, he’s a hard player to place in the long-term. Immediately, I would put him behind Laine, Voracek, Nyquist, Bjorkstrand, and perhaps even Johnson and Jenner (assuming both are used on the wing). That’s without Kirill Marchenko, who I think could also compete for time in the top-six this season. And, Yegor Chinakhov, who stood out in a lot of good ways last year. Keeping Texier around, might stunt the development of two of the best young wingers the team has had in recent years.
I don’t see them dealing a player like Bjorkstrand, who wears a letter and is locked up longer-term. I don’t think there would be a ton of offseason interest in a player like Nyquist … that’s a deadline deal, if you look to move him. For these reasons, I think you have to weed out the players that don’t fit into the makeup of this roster immediately and for the future. To me, Texier and Bean are those players.
Now, it’s tough to pinpoint which teams might be looking to deal the kind of center the Blue Jackets would be looking for. But, if the Jackets were willing to ante up with Texier, Bean, and something like the #12 overall pick? I think there would be some teams willing to listen to offers. The improved roster could be very solid:
Up front:
Laine-(acquired center)-Voracek
Nyquist-Roslovic-Bjorkstrand
Jenner-Sillinger-Chinakhov
Robinson-Kuraly-Marchenko
Foudy-Danforth
Defense:
Werenski-Peeke
Gavrikov-Boqvist
Blankenburg/Christiansen-Manson
What do you think? We would love to hear your trade ideas, comment below!