Predicting the Columbus Blue Jackets First Round Pick at #18
Tomorrow the Columbus Blue Jackets will make a first round draft pick for the first time since 2016.
There are infinite mock drafts out there for Columbus Blue Jackets fans to obsess over. And many are quite good and I highly recommend including Corey Pronman from The Athletic and Craig Button of TSN.
Rather than going through and trying to predict who will get drafted where to teams that you don’t really care about, we are going to run through some players that could be available at 18. To do this, we are going to list players that are guaranteed to be off the board by then.
Locked-in Top 10 picks
There is going to be zero intrigue with the top two picks of this years draft. Rasmus Dahlin is in a tier all of his own at the top and Andrei Svechnikov is in a tier of his own as the second overall pick. These two are head and shoulders above the rest of the class and will be gone in the first two picks.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Then things get crazy with Montreal. They are completely unpredictable and could pick anyone from Jesperi Kotkaniemi, the fast rising Finnish center, Brady Tkuchuk, the physical, NHL ready winger, or the second best scorer in the draft behind Svechnikov, Filip Zadina. Either way, all three of those players are going to be gone in the top ten.
They will be joined by a group of defenseman including Quinn Hughes, Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson that will be taken in the top ten.
Those eight players will be gone before the New York Islanders take back to back picks at number 11 and 12.
Likely Top 15 Picks
The next group of players are those who I believe will be drafted anywhere from six overall up to the 15th slot in the draft this year. These players have less than a 5% chance in my mind to fall past the Florida Panthers at 15.
Oliver Wahlstrom won’t get past the Chicago Blackhawks at eight in my mind but is the next closest player to being a lock in the top ten in this draft. Adam Bovquist, once considered to be the second best defenseman in this draft, will likely not get past the Islanders back-to-back picks. The same can be said for defenseman Ty Smith from the Spokane Chiefs.
Then we get to two other centers who are unlikely in my mind to slip past 15. Joseph Veleno from the QMJHL and Barrett Hayton from the OHL would be huge steals for any team past 15. There is almost no chance in my mind that the Jackets get a chance to take either of those players.
Finally, I believe after Svechnikov, the best Russian winger in this draft is Vitaly Kravtsov. Kravtsov is coming off of a great performance in the KHL playoffs and is rising fast on draft boards. I don’t expect him to get past 15.
What does that leave the Jackets with?
That is 14 players that in my mind, have little to no shot of being options for the Columbus Blue Jackets at the 18th pick. There are a few slots left to fill before the Jackets are up but the depth in this draft means that players are all over the board in terms of their ranks on certain scouts boards.
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Some players that will be selected in the first round may not be on other teams boards until you get down to the 60’s or 70’s. So there is a lot that could be available to the Jackets but these players above most certainly won’t be.
The Jackets will likely have a shot at drafting a decent center but not a for sure first or even second line center at the 18th pick. Rasmus Kupari, Isac Lundestrom, and Ryan McLeod are all players that should be available and you could rationalize them picking at 18.
Defenseman like Bode Wilde would be tempting at 18 but he is right on the edge in my opinion. Wilde’s range fluctuates from being taken ahead of Ty Smith, to a late first rounder. Fellow USNTPer Mattias Samuelson would likely be available but I don’t see the Jackets going for a defenseman unless one of my “Likely top 15” players drops.
What is left is a plethora of scoring wingers that need just a year or two before they make a significant NHL impact. The list is long but I think the Jackets will be targeting Russian Grigori Denisenko, German Dominik Bokk, or American Joel Farabee. All three are supremely talented wingers that have great shots.
All will need some time before heading over to the NHL but all have incredible ceilings. In the end, I think Bokk would be a fantastic choice. The German product spent last season in the Swedish Elite Junior league and dominated his peers. He performed well at the World Junior Championship, albeit at the division one level.
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Bokk I believe has the highest ceiling out of all of the wingers available. At the 18th pick there is a certain amount of gamble you have to take so why not shoot for the moon with Bokk. He could grow into a 30 goal scorer or even a Rocket Richard Trophy winner.
Any player the Jackets take at 18 will need some time to grow. If they are going to take time to blossom, they should take Bokk and see if he can be the next German hockey sensation.