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The Curious Case of Sergei Bobrovsky and the Stanley Cup Playoffs

By Steven Kenworthy

COLUMBUS, OH - APRIL 23: Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (72) misses a shot bro Washington Capitals right wing Devante Smith-Pelly (25) that went in during game 6 in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on April 23, 2018. The Capitals won 6-3 and advance to the Second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. (Photo by Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OH - APRIL 23: Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (72) misses a shot bro Washington Capitals right wing Devante Smith-Pelly (25) that went in during game 6 in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on April 23, 2018. The Capitals won 6-3 and advance to the Second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. (Photo by Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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As much as Columbus Blue Jackets fans love goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, it’s no secret they’d like to see more from him during the playoffs.

As the Stanley Cup playoffs rage on, Columbus Blue Jackets fans are left again wondering if their star netminder has what it takes to get the job done in the postseason. Some will be quick to remember Sergei Bobrovsky’s 54 save performance in Game 2 versus the Capitals. Of course we should give credit where it is due, but that is a fraction of Bob’s 18 playoff game history.

We look at the NHL’s second highest paid goalie compared to his playoff counterparts. To best assess Bob’s overall performance for the CBJ, we wipe away all variables and consider raw data.

18 games is a sufficient sample size to mostly discount power play numbers, home ice advantage, opponent quality and any other variables. We’re looking at the two primary indicators of goalie performance; save percentage and goals allowed average.

My apologies if this begins to feel like a stats class. After all, they say numbers enjoy telling the truth more than humans do. Let’s start with save percentage.

Sergei Bobrovsky’s Save Percentage in the Playoffs

Of the 15 goalies who started at least 4 games in the 2017-2018 NHL playoffs, Bob comes in at 10th best with a save percentage of .900 even. In the 2016-2017 series against the Pittsburgh Penguins, Bob fared even worse. Of the 17 goalies who started at least 4 games last year, Bob finished second to last with an abysmal .882 save percentage. He beat out (then) Calgary’s Brian Elliott by a mere .002 for last place.

In his only other playoff series in 2013-2014, Sergei had perhaps his best performance. Among netminders with at least a series worth of starts, his save percentage of .908 places him at 12th of 18.

To show disparity, Bob’s regular season save percentages and differences are as follows.

2013-2014 – Regular Season % .928. This is .20% higher than his playoff performance.

2016-2017 – Regular Season % .931. This is a substantial .49% higher than his playoff number.

2017-2018 – Regular Season % .921. This is .21% higher than his series against the Caps.

Career – Regular Season % .921. This .30% higher than his lifetime playoff percent of .891.

You can always argue that a goaltender’s save percentage is likely to dip because they’re playing better opponents in the playoffs. On the other hand, some say that legends rise to the occasion and perform even better in the postseason. Let’s look at goals allowed to help solidify our scope of Bob’s performance.

Related Story: Columbus Blue Jackets Offseason Goaltender Depth Chart

Sergei Bobrovsky’s Goals Allowed Average in the Playoffs

Some would suggest that save percentage is a much better indicator of goalie performance. Goals against average (GAA) is more susceptible to influential variables like overtime goals, etc. Still, fans like the statistic as a surface measuring tool for debate, criticism, venting frustrations, you name it.

These GAA numbers often look very similar to save percentage placement but for the sake of seeing the data, I break it down below.

Bob’s 2017-2018 GAA of 3.18 is 10th out of 15 goalies who started 4 games or more. His 2016-2017 GAA of 3.88 mirrors his save percentage placement of 16th out of 17 starters. Lastly, Bob’s 2013-2014 GAA of 3.18 is 15th out of 18 netminders.

Again to show disparity, I compare Bob’s playoff GAA versus his regular season numbers.

2013-2014 – Regular Season GAA 2.38. This is .80 lower than his playoff number.

2016-2017 – Regular Season GAA 2.06. This is a blistering 1.62 goals less than his playoff average.

2017-2018 – Regular Season GAA 2.42. This is .76 less than his GAA versus the Caps.

Career – Regular Season GAA 2.44. This is a significant 1.05 lower than his career playoff average of 3.49.

What to Make of the Numbers

Say what you want about quality of opponent, power play opportunities, overtime periods and the like but these numbers do say a lot. Don’t get me wrong, I am as much a Bobrovsky proponent as the next Columbus Blue Jackets fan. Sadly though, one would think the league’s second highest paid goaltender would perform either better, or at least similarly in the playoffs as he does during the regular season.

It’s also worth noting that in 18 starts, Bob has yet to allow less than 3 goals in a single game. This is maybe the most damning stat of all. That surprises many, but it’s a number that hides beneath the layers of percentages and averages.

Now scrub away the save percentage and GAA and focus on that last one. I have to think that a great NHL team, regardless of the quality of their roster will need its goalie to win it a game or two if they are to make a deep Stanley Cup run.

Next: 2017-2018 Season Evaluation of Sergei Bobrovsky

With just one year left on his contract, Sergei Bobrovsky could have maybe just one last chance to shine in the playoffs for the Columbus Blue Jackets. That opportunity too could define his legacy in Columbus.

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