Just several days following the firing of head coach Dean Evason and assistant coach Steve McCarthy, the Columbus Blue Jackets suddenly look like a completely different group.
Kent Johnson is talking about how much fun he is having all of a sudden and has finally gotten the monkey off of his back with his first goal in the new year.
Elvis Merzļikins posted his first sub-three goal game since October, and hashed out brutal honesty on the bench. Charlie Coyle looked like a man on a mission, firing eight shots on net against the Canucks on Thursday night.
The sudden shift in both performance and attitude naturally leads to the bigger question: can this team still claw its way into the Stanley Cup Playoffs? A three‑game winning streak certainly helps, but the climb remains steep. Let’s break down the math
Target point total to comfortably make the playoffs: 98
This number is easier to pin down than you might think. The most critical teams currently ahead of Columbus are the Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres. Through 46 games—one fewer than the Jackets—the Penguins sit at 54 points and the Sabres at 56.
Using a simple projection formula, (Points ÷ Games Played) × 82, we can estimate each team’s full‑season pace. By that measure, Buffalo is tracking toward 99.8 points, while Pittsburgh is on pace for 96.3 points
Because the first tiebreaker is regulation wins—and the Jackets have the fewest in the Eastern Conference—they can’t realistically rely on winning tiebreakers. They’ll need to out‑point at least one of those teams outright, which puts their target in the 96–98 point range.
From there, the math is straightforward: Columbus needs 49 points in their final 35 games to reach that threshold. Possible records that get them there include:
23–10–2
22–8–5
22–7–6
In other words, the Jackets must play at roughly a .700 points percentage the rest of the way. They have, at most, 10 regulation losses to give before they are effectively eliminated from contention.
Those are elite‑level numbers, the kind usually reserved for teams already sitting comfortably in the top eight of the league standings. Are the Jackets capable of playing at that pace? Absolutely.
Is it the most likely outcome? Probably not. But that’s the beauty of hockey — chaos is always lurking, and momentum can flip a season on its head. No matter how the math shakes out, the rest of this season in Columbus is going to be a blast to watch.