It's been a fun few weeks of Columbus Blue Jackets hockey, especially at Nationwide Arena. Since the win over the Devils on 12/19 and the lineup reshuffle just before Christmas, the team is 12-4-2 in its last 18 games. Before the game in Vegas against the Golden Knights on 1/30, the team is tied for the second wild card spot with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
With over two full months remaining in the season, including the time off coming up for the Four Nations break, the Jackets will need to continue to stay competitive and hope their early-season losing streaks do not come back to bite them if they wish to remain inside a very competitive Eastern Conference Playoffs race.
Both Moneypuck and The Athletic still have low probability scores for the Blue Jackets making the playoffs, with 18% and 29%, respectively. Both believe the Jackets will end up right around 87 points, which would keep the CBJ out of the postseason in both scenarios by just a handful of points. With the underperformance of several teams in the east, namely the Bruins, Rangers & Lightning, to this point, it's not likely that the points requirement to enter the playoffs will be as high as the last time Columbus made it.
In 2018-2019, the Jackets made the playoffs by earning 98 points, which required beating out the Canadiens on the last day of the season. In 2021-2022, they accumulated 81 points but were 19 points away from the last-place spot occupied by the Capitals that season, with 100. The past several seasons have been lower thresholds, with the Panthers earning 92 two seasons ago and the Capitals squeaking in with 91 off of a tiebreaker with the Red Wings last year.
If the projections from Moneypuck & The Athletic are to be believed, the point total required this season will be around 88 to 90 for the final wild card spot. So, what kind of record would be realistic in the CBJ's final 31 games in a scenario where they make the postseason?
If we use the club's winning percentage in their recent run of success, 66%, and apply that over 31 games, the club would finish with a 21-7-3 record and 45-26-10 line, good for 100 points and likely good enough for the third Metropolitan division spot. This would likely require the Devils to continue to spiral, as they have slashed just 4-7-3 in their last 14 games since the end of December. But, I think New Jersey is too talented to have this skid continue for the remainder of the season.
What about the minimum? Let's say the playoff line is at 90 points. A realistic record for the Jackets to achieve the final 35 points they would need in 31 games would look like a 17-12-2 line to end up with 91 points. To put this into perspective, the Jackets can underperform their recent point pace by 11% and still have a shot at making the Playoffs realistically. If they convert a few of those losses into OT, like they have been doing often recently, they'd put themselves into an even better spot.
Suffice to say: the final few months of this season are going to be a blast.