Blue Jackets 2024 season preview, Elvis Merzlikins has reached his final chance in Columbus

No matter his play on the ice, Elvis Merzlikins loves the city of Columbus and the fans. He has been tireless in his efforts to support and give back to the community.

Putting that aside and focusing on his on-ice play, to say that Elvis has struggled in the past two seasons since his stellar Rookie and Sophomore seasons in the NHL would be a bit of an understatement.

Per NHL.com, In 2021-2022, Elvis averaged a 3.22 GAA with a .907 Save %. Since then, he hasn't had a season-long save percentage above .900 and has averaged 4.23 and 3.45 GAA in the last two seasons, respectively.

Moneypuck.com lists him as the tenth worst goaltender this past season in Goals Saved Above Expected at a -6.3 with at least 30 GP and was dead last in the same category in 2022-2023 with a -25.9 GSAx. GSAx attempts to quantify how many goals the average goaltender in the NHL would save in the same situations. Elvis was significantly worse than the average expectations for an NHL-caliber starting goalie.

Comparing Elvis' -6.3 GSAx this past season to every other goalie suited up in the Union Blue is telling. Daniil Tarasov finished at exactly 0.0 GSAx, and Jet Greaves finished at 3.9 GSAx. If we had just taken Tarasov's games once he was fully healthy after the beginning of the year, he'd likely be much higher in this statistic.

These advanced statistics help us quantify how much of the Blue Jackets' defensive woes have been due to their shaky Defensive core in the last few seasons and how much is simply due to poor play in net. Unfortunately for Elvis, in his case, it seems the latter is more likely to influence the team's poor play in the defensive zone than the team's poor play in the former.

The question will be, can Elvis recapture his previous success in this upcoming campaign? Elvis relies on an aggressive butterfly style of goaltending that leans into his superb athleticism and size to create for himself highlight-reel type saves that he became known for back in 2019 during his rookie campaign.

Over the past several years, however, Elvis has slowed significantly. He's late to react to pucks coming his way and struggles to adjust to screens and quick puck movement. While he made some improvements last year under new goaltending coach Niklas Bäckström, it may not have been enough to save his job. Based on what we saw last year, I'm skeptical.

With the waiver exemption for Jet Greaves and the contract of Daniil Tarasov both expiring at the end of this upcoming season, this feels like Elvis' final shot in Columbus. I love Elvis; his fire while on the ice, passion for the game, and love for the fans endear him to many Jackets supporters. However, no matter how you spin it, we may see his final season in the Union Blue in 2024-2025.

One bold prediction: Elvis will lose the starting job in training camp and will be bought out next summer.

It isn't easy to look positively at the prospect of Elvis winning the starting job out of camp and heading into this upcoming season, with Daniil Tarasov looking poised to take over the role. The Jackets have not had a true #1 goaltender since Sergei Bobrovsky in 2019, and this seems to be the perfect opportunity for the once highly-regarded goaltending prospect to lock down that role.