It seems that Erik Gudbranson's time in Columbus may be coming to a close. With rumors that the team doesn't plan on extending the defenseman, Gudbranson's second-longest stint with one team will likely end, and the veteran will look to join the ninth club of his career.
After signing a four-year, $4 million AAV contract in July of 2022, Gudbranson has only played in 53 games in the last two seasons due to significant shoulder and hip injuries, respectively.
He never made a particularly strong impact, playing subpar hockey in his first two years before struggling through the last two injury-ridden campaigns.
This season, Gudbranson ranked last on the Jackets in both shot attempt (Corsi) percent and expected goals percent at 5-on-5, according to MoneyPuck.
He was also the worst defender on the team when looking at offense and defense independently, contributing the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes and allowing the most expected goals per 60 minutes to opponents.
This was somewhat evident when you watched him closely, as despite his physical play being above average, he clearly struggled at times to keep up with the fast pace of play.
The one thing I will gladly give him credit for was his penalty killing. With his somewhat slow play being less of a factor when hemmed in the defensive zone, Gudbranson was arguably the team's best defender when down a man.
This is supported by the analytics, as he actually allowed the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes on the penalty kill among defenders who played in those situations. His willingness to play physically played a major role here, as opponents struggled to screen the goalie or get deflections when Gudbranson was on the ice.
While I do think that this penalty-killing strength has solid value, it just doesn't make up for the blatant struggles on both sides of the puck at even strength.
While I love a defender that is a great leader, physical, and has good experience, it's easy to see why Gudbranson isn't atop the Jackets' priority list of pending free agents, especially when you combine the on-ice struggles with the slightly concerning injury history over the last two years.
With him, Brendan Smith, and Egor Zamula all looking unlikely to re-sign with Columbus, it may open a path for younger defenders in the organization to fight for a roster spot on opening night. After the team's struggles down the stretch, it's clear some change in the leadership group is needed, and Erik Gudbranson may be a casualty of that change.
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