The top end of the 2023 NHL Draft Class, outside of a particular Russian forward, are all facing the most dreaded term for a young prospect in all sports: the infamous Sophomore Slump. Connor Bedard's shooting percentage is down 3%, his faceoffs are down 8%, and he is on pace to either slip from or just match his 0.90 PPG pace from a season ago.
While shooting an otherworldly 20%, Will Smith is down in his SOG overall and appears on pace to either slip in his PPG totals or come in under his 0.53 pace from a season ago. David Reinbacher is currently assigned an injured designation while assigned to the Pascal Vincent-coached Laval Rockets. Even 2022 first-overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky appears to have taken a step back in what will likely be his second full season of NHL hockey, as his shooting percentage has dropped to just 6.5% from 13.2%
Unfortunately, Blue Jackets forward Adam Fantilli is facing much of the same. Fantilli is roughly on pace to match his 0.55 PPG pace from his abbreviated season a year ago, even while he posts an additional minute of TOI per night. His shooting percentage is down just over 1.0%, his faceoff win percentage is down about two points, and he seems to have taken a small step back with his even-strength play overall.
The sophomore slump is real for the 2023 draft class. pic.twitter.com/ozakOpxFs5
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) December 8, 2024
Despite all these factors, I don't think CBJ fans need to push the panic button just yet for their much-beloved top prospect. Fantilli has shown some growth in his game and further solidified himself in terms of his strengths.
He can fly...
His high-level skating ability continues to remain his bread and butter. Fantilli has taken a top ten spot among all NHL skaters in 20- and 22-mile-per-hour bursts during his ice time per NHL EDGE. Despite his lower TOI compared to some of the other top skaters, he has still shown more consistent high-end speed than other high-skill skaters like Quinton Byfield and Bo Horvat.
The top end of these rankings includes names like Nathan McKinnon and Connor McDavid, pointing to the importance of this skill for some of the best players in the sport presently in their primes.
In my observations, especially recently, Adam has shown a greater ability to insert himself into the offensive scheming of new head coach Dean Evason. I saw him struggle at times earlier in the year to find his proper spot on the ice during offensive zone possessions. Still, as the season has gone on, it's seemed that the young forward has become more comfortable with his role as a high-level scorer and distributor when needed.
While this comfortability has not yet translated completely into an increase in production lately, a lot of this can also be attributed to the team's current slump across the board. With time, I'm confident that Fantilli will find his way and especially as he heads into the second half of his second NHL season (and hopefully first full one); he will continue to show why the Jackets were confident in selecting him third overall.