Columbus Blue Jackets: Nick Foligno 2018-2019 Season Expectations

The time is now for Nick Foligno to redefine his role on the Columbus Blue Jackets. The veteran winger will look to fend off young talent chomping at his heels and minutes in 2018-2019. What to expect from the team’s lovable captain this season.

Nobody wants to say it, but I will. Nick Foligno is one more below average season away from looking like the second most overpaid player on the Columbus Blue Jackets. Before unfair assumptions are made, let me clarify my train of thought.

The highly-likable team captain is quietly wading toward the same waters Brandon Dubinsky drifted into last season. For what it’s worth, I would love to be wrong about this but the parallels are coming together.

In defense of Foligno, he wears many hats and is typically the first player who gets bumped to another line or role. He can play center, is a decent penalty killer, and can also feature in the paint on the power play. His versatility in some ways negates his deficiencies. Still, we need to be honest about the captain’s production drop-off and less than ideal contract.

Like Dubinsky, Foligno cashed in at the right time. Scoring at a blistering pace to start the 2014 season, he signed a six year deal with an average cap hit of $5.5M per. “Fligs” would go on to score  a career high 73 points that year (31G, 42A).

Since that 2014-15 season, Foligno hasn’t come close to those lofty totals. He posted a respectable 51 points in 16-17, but a lowly 33 last year with just 15 goals scored. I am not ready to say that him game is fading into an irreversible pattern of mediocrity. He is only 30-years old and there is more to his game than scoring.

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For added context though, he is off the top power play, so there goes double digit points off the state sheet. I would argue too that no player has had less predictability or stability on a line than Foligno. Maybe this year he lucks out and can strictly play wing next to one center, either Alexander Wennberg or Riley Nash.

Before I share my expectations for #71, I want to say that I place a lot of value on players who do many things on the ice. Goal scorers are nice, but you can’t have nothing but goal scorers. Strong penalty killers are great too, but you need talent on offense. So on and so forth, you get it. An even distribution of skills on any team is ideal.

This sets us up nicely for some numerical analysis.

Nick Foligno by the numbers

I am a Boone Jenner defender by trade because I believe in “complete” hockey players. Nick in many ways falls into that category for me. Here are some reasons why.

I’ll start off by saying you can’t put a price on good leadership. In and of itself, the skill is not enough to justify a $33-million dollar contract, but it’s a starting point. Surely I can’t be the only one who remembers the Columbus Blue Jackets who were without a captain for three seasons.

No one is going to jump out of their chair over this, but Foligno plays the third most minutes among forwards for the CBJ. Behind only Cam Atkinson and Artemi Panarin, his 18 and a half minutes per game speak to his versatility and trustworthiness in a variety of game situations. Again, nothing too exciting but worth mention.

Another subtle statistic that is unlikely to give anyone goosebumps is shooting percentage (SPCT). It seems like no one begins to notice this until a massive goal-scoring drought hits. That being said, the veteran captain is among the most consistent in the category for the Jackets. In his six years with the CBJ, his SPCT is 13.0%, which would’ve been second among full-time Jackets last year. His 10.9% in ’17- ’18 is a drop and helps further explain his unimpressive 15 goals.

Nick has finished in the top three in hits on the team for the last four years. He finished second to Jenner last year with a reputable 182. This continues to point back to Foligno’s “completeness”. His physicality shouldn’t be overlooked for lack of offensive flash. Besides, I know I wouldn’t want to watch a Blue Jackets team that doesn’t rough up its opponent.

I’ve already discussed his scoring so I won’t harp further on goals and assists. So as not to turn this into a glowing fluff piece, I want to mention a couple of areas for improvement.

Foligno is notoriously below average in the face-off circle. This isn’t a 2017-2018 thing either. Historically he has hovered in the 46% range but he hasn’t improved in a decade. It’s up to the Columbus Blue Jackets coaching and management to find better options on the dot.

Lastly, Fligs averages a freakishly steady 50 penalty minutes (PIM) per season. Last year he notched that exact figure. I understand the occasional dust up swells the number pretty quick, but a team captain shouldn’t be taking sloppy penalties and he only fought twice last year. I’m sure the Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus Blue Jackets

What does it all mean?

I referenced Brandon Dubinsky earlier because Foligno’s contract through 2021 could begin to look quite unattractive if his numbers continue to move backwards. With a trove of young, hungry wings chomping at his heels, it’s up to him to stay ahead of the pack and lead from the front.

I like to think positional and line consistency matters more than what the critics might say. Beneath box scores and fantasy statistics are the minutiae that explain why a player did, or didn’t have this or that type of season.

I’m not expecting a return to his glorious form in 2014-2015, but I do predict an uptick from Foligno’s prior campaign. I don’t think he’s past his physical prime or capability, but I think he needs a permanent role to thrive in. Going back again to that 73-point effort, Foligno played his true position (left wing) all year. It’s not an all-explaining excuse either, but it matters.

It’s going to be an interesting season to watch how the King Clancy winner performs under all the circumstances I’ve mentioned. Unlike years past, one thing is for sure. The Columbus Blue Jackets don’t need Nick Foligno to play like an all-star to win their division or make a run.

At this stage in his career, it’s more about leading by example and proving to his teammates that his contract won’t age poorly. I think he settles in nicely this year. I don’t expect career-highs or further slippage, but somewhere comfortably in between.

Statistical Projections

Goals: 21

Assists: 25

Plus/Minus: +4