Columbus Blue Jackets: Ryan Murray 2018-2019 Season Expectations

If the Columbus Blue Jackets have a true wildcard on their roster, it is defenseman Ryan Murray. If the stars align and he can stay healthy, he could be in for a career-defining season.

It is impossible to project Ryan Murray’s season expectations without laying down the injury caveat. As much as the Columbus Blue Jackets would love to see the Canadian defenseman healthy, he has only averaged 52 games per season since cracking the NHL ranks in 2013.

With a train of young blue liners in the wings, what can “Murr” bring to the table for the CBJ this season? Before jumping into statistical analyses, I feel like it’s important to mention that #27 needs to have a career year. The youth behind him aren’t going to stop developing and the depth in Columbus demands better from Murray.

On a one-year contract, it goes without saying that the time is now for the 25-year old Canadian to play his best hockey. I am quick to forgive players who show signs of injury rust. The problem with Murray is that he’s only played one full NHL season, and in that season he did not play particularly well.

Without piling on the embattled defender for the sake of bullying, I lean on the numbers to speak for his play. After all, no matter how some CBJ fans feel about #27, he has only ever played his heart out in Columbus.

Like it or not, Murray does play hard. This is more than can be said for some. Is it enough to keep him around though? In an organizational locker room full of budding prospects, Murray is going to have to produce this year if he plans to stay in his union and blue sweater next season.

By the Numbers:

As much as I want to believe that Ryan Murray has an unfounded gear in his game, I don’t know that he has it. I very badly would love to be wrong about this. The problem is, he is entering his sixth season without notable signs of progress.

For the sake of best clarity, let’s operate under the unlikely assumption that Murray plays a full season. Even if he scrapes past the 70-game mark, he will have played enough to show what he is or isn’t capable of doing.

Last year, Murray posted 12 points (1G, 11A) in 44 games. At .27 points per game, he was on pace for a 22 point season with just 2 goals. For a defenseman who played almost 19 minutes per outing, that’s below average at best. There are a couple of reasons for this though.

Foremost, Murr shot a career low 2.9% last year. That’s two full percentage points less than his career average of 4.9%. Unlike his star teammates Zach Werenski and Seth Jones, Murray doesn’t see time on the power play. This limits his offense, but didn’t stop other Blue Jacket defenseman from accumulating more point totals in 5-on-5 play.

Since a defenseman’s game isn’t based primarily on scoring, it makes sense to look at the rest of Murray’s stat sheet. Perhaps the brightest spot on last year’s resume is his career-low eight penalty minutes (PIM). This bodes well for responsible play especially when the prior two seasons he logged 40, and 24 PIM respectively.

To stay on the positive, Murr deserves credit for blocking the second most shots per game (1.70) on the Columbus Blue Jackets. Since this is a mostly thankless task, it is worth mentioning in my opinion. Having taken a slapshot to the face myself, I greatly respect the lefty for his selfless play.

Semi-peculiar about #27 is that his plus/minus fluctuates little year-by-year. As much as I’d like to draw a deeper analysis from this, with Murray I don’t feel like I can. He has a strange way of going unnoticed at times.

It may sound naive to admit this in an analytical writeup, but the former first rounder has a knack for fading into the ice. His mistakes never feel too huge, yet at the same time he doesn’t jump off the screen with some of the big plays you’d hope for from a first-rounder who has had five years to prove himself.

What to Expect vs. What He Needs to Do:

If Murray wants to earn a long-term deal to stay in Columbus, he’ll have to fend off the boatload of young talent chomping at his heels. To do this, he’s going to have to outperform his career bests.

There is certainly a place on every NHL roster for a reliable, veteran defenseman. Unfortunately for Murray, Columbus has a half dozen defensive options blossoming behind him.

Again, if he can stay healthy I wouldn’t expect a breakout campaign from the Canadian blue liner in 2018-2019. As blindly optimistic as I can be, I feel that Murray has nearly tapped the full extent of his potential. I do believe though that he can have a better year than last, and his 82-game campaign in 2015-16.

With that being said, my projection for him isn’t particularly exciting. I expect Murray to stay on the penalty kill, play similar minutes and hopefully reach towards the 25-point mark. This would match his former career high in 15-16.

However, I don’t see the young defenseman nearing 30 points, or posting a plus/minus impressive enough to change the larger perception around his game. Without a disastrous season packed with turnovers or stupid penalties, I would argue that 30 points and a +/- rating in the teens would be enough to have Jarmo and company strongly considering a contract renewal. Then again, the youngsters behind him may have something to say about that.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Summing It Up:

Unfair as it might sound, the most exciting thing to watch for with Ryan Murray this year is how he’ll play under a one year contract, with more defensive depth behind him than maybe any other NHL team could boast.

A breakout performance would be absolutely huge for the CBJ, but Ryan will have to stay healthy first. If #27 can put together an 80-game season, it is possible he could surprise us all and outperform his skeptics. I do believe strongly however that one more injury-plagued year and his tenure in Columbus is up.

Ryan Murray can be a very reliable, even if quiet defenseman for the Columbus Blue Jackets. With the emergence of Nutivaara, alongside standouts Jones and Werenski, Murr doesn’t need to be more than that.

This season has easily become the most important of Murray’s career. It wouldn’t be completely new for a player to explode in the wake of a single year contract.

As a Jackets fan though, it might be best to just hope that Murray avoids injury and plays reliably next to his Finnish partner. Anything beyond that would just be bonus. That being said, any bonus play from #27 could mean bigger and better things for the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Stat Projections:

Goals: 4

Assists: 22
Plus/Minus: +6

Fights: 0