Columbus Blue Jackets: Artemi Panarin 2018-2019 Season Expectations

All trade talk aside, Artemi Panarin had an explosive season last year for the Columbus Blue Jackets. It might seem like crazy talk, but through analysis, I argue that he is only beginning to approach his ceiling. What to expect from the Russian winger in 2018-2019.

The entire Columbus Blue Jackets community has collectively exhausted itself of Artemi Panarin trade rumors. Regardless of what happens next, it’s a good time to hit refresh and reflect on the player himself. Whether or not #9 chooses to stay in Columbus past 2018-2019, his potential to bloom further in Columbus is by no means a bold take. Let’s explore the why.

Coming off a blockbuster trade for twice Chicago Blackhawk Brandon Saad, Panarin came slowly out of the gates in Columbus. Saad opened the 2017-18 season with a hat trick while Panarin was sluggishly finding his footing in Nationwide Arena. Panic set in for many, but the end result would favor the Blue Jackets tremendously.

Finishing with a CBJ franchise record 82 points (27G, 55A), the “Bread Man” delivered in a massive way for the Jackets. Chicago fans more familiar with Panarin may not have been surprised by the left winger’s output, as he posted 77 (30G, 47A) and 74 (31G, 43A) points respectively in his two prior seasons in the NHL. What might have come as a small shock though, would be his increase in scoring without perennial all-star Patrick Kane centering his line.

Not only did Bread score eight more points than last season, he did it on a line that hadn’t fully evolved until after the middle of the season. The Jackets struggled to find a number one center, until rookie Pierre-Luc Dubois emerged to seize the role.

On top of this, Panarin didn’t seem to find his full play-making potential until finally paired with all-star winger Cam Atkinson. Again, this top line didn’t take shape until right wing Josh Anderson February 26th knee injury, allowing Atkinson to move up on the first line.

If you watched the Jackets last year, you could see a visible difference in Panarin’s playmaking once this top line gelled and solidified. After all, post March 1st, Atkinson, Dubois and Panarin went on a collective points frenzy as the Jackets caught fire and posted 14-4-4 to close out the season.

This explosive chemistry evolved in just a little over 20 games. Panarin had already established himself as the Columbus Blue Jackets top scoring threat, but this chemistry helped him find another gear. The same could be said for Dubois and Atkinson.

Without much courage necessary, I’d say Panarin has another level in his union and blue sweater. There seems to be a neat meshing in the top line’s personalities and play styles. Dubois complements the two speedy wingers well with his gritty, in your face game. Atkinson and Panarin meanwhile seem to thrive off of each other’s quickness and willingness to pass to the other if the shot lanes aren’t clear.

A lot of all-star wings will, or feel pressured to shoot regardless of what the defense gives. The two sniping Jackets play off of each other selflessly and even mirror one another’s role on the team’s eventually improved power play.

It’s hard to argue that the Bread Man couldn’t outdo his 2017-18 numbers on a permanent line, next to a budding center in his second year such as PLD. All of this surface analysis begs for numbers, which often tell a more black and white version of the truth. Let’s see what they say.

Columbus Blue Jackets

What the Numbers Tell Us:

Artemi hovered near his career averages of goals scored and assists in his first year with the Columbus Blue Jackets. This sells short his accomplishments and doesn’t forecast fell.

Scoring 27 goals compared to his previous career average of 30.5 could easily be explained by a substantial drop in his shooting percentage. Posting a personal low of 11.8%, Panarin dipped significantly below his previous two seasons of 16.0% and 14.8%.

This can be attributed to many factors, but I would be quick to blame the lack of a second effective shooter on the power play. This is likely something the Jackets will look to address in the offseason, having finished 25th in the league with a lowly 17.2% success rate.

When it comes to assists, the Russian surprisingly boosted his prior season tally by 12 with a career high of 55. I attribute this to a couple of things. Firstly, many of the Jackets top playmakers slumped their way through the first months of the 2017-18 season. To piggyback on that, the center play was less than impressive.

While coach John Tortorella was busy trying to find a number one center, and multiple key players were recovering from injury, Panarin became the team’s de facto playmaker. In my opinion, the term playmaker in this scenario leans toward producing assists over goals. When others were struggling to create their own shot, #9 was creating for them.

Artemi assumed the role well and carried a limping Jackets squad through some dogged winter months. All of this helps explain the franchise record of 55 assists.

The last statistic I’ll mention is plus/minus rating, but only because I think Panarin could compete toward the NHL lead in 2018-19. What sounds like a pretty strong opinion is really quite tame. For starters, he lead the Columbus Blue Jackets last year with a +23 rating. That was good for 22nd in the NHL.

Why do I expect to see another leap in the dynamic winger’s positive rating? It’s quite simple. Panarin will never see time on the team’s penalty kill; a special teams assignment that often buoys good players plus/minus ratings. Secondly, I expect Panarin’s new found chemistry with Atkinson and Dubois to show itself much earlier and often.

Last but not least, as I mentioned, the Jackets power play was less than impressive in 2017-18. Not only did it finish 25th, but it was dead last in the league for the bulk of the season. I am not expecting to see the CBJ bolt up to top five status, but a respectable 15th or 16th (league average) would be good for at least an additional +8 or +9 on Panarin’s scorecard.

In Summary:

It’s hard not to throw another “if” out there when talking about Panarin, but the rumor mill leaves its stains on the best of us. That being said, if #9 plays out the year in Columbus, I think he tops his 82-point 2017-2018 on a young, improved team, on an even better top line.

If Atkinson and Dubois can stay healthy and play as good or better than their second half showings in last year, I expect the Bread Man to reap the byproduct.  Playing on an electric line with chemistry, Artemi has an opportunity to improve (still) as he turns 27-years old in October.

Out of the shadows of Patrick Kane, Panarin could anchor a roster capable of making a deep run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I think he tops 30 goals again this year, with or without substantial improvement on the power play. His shooting percentage should climb and his linemates will help him get there.

Part of me wants to believe that Bread can smell the rarified air that is the 90-point mark. In Columbus, I think he can get it done. Assuming he suits up in the union and blue for years to come, I believe he’ll get it this year or next. The line chemistry, star focus, overtime touches and power play dynamic seem conducive to the possibility.

Trying to stay away from trade talks one last time, I see big things for Panarin in Columbus this year. The reasons why he should score more greatly outnumber the objections that he would produce less. He will need help from his fellow skaters if he wants to set more career bests, but don’t expect less than phenomenal from the Russian forward.

Nationwide Arena’s ceilings are pretty high indeed, it’s just hard to believe Artemi Panarin isn’t there just yet. The Columbus Blue Jackets can only hope to witness the spectacle.

Final Statistical Projections:

Goals: 31

Assists: 57

Plus/Minus: +32

Shooting Percentage: 14.4%