Columbus Blue Jackets: Kevin Stenlund 2018-2019 Season Expectations

The Columbus Blue Jackets 2015 2nd round pick will be relied upon heavily by Cleveland in his first full season in North America.

Kevin Stenlund’s 2017 season ended with a seven game stretch with the Cleveland Monsters in the AHL. The Columbus Blue Jackets’ minor league squad was the worst team in the American league last year and if they expect to turn around their fortune, Stendlund will have to be a big contributor.

The 21-year-old Swedish center was the Jackets 2nd round pick in 2015. He was taken #58 overall. He was the Jackets fourth pick that year behind Zach Werenski, Gabriel Carlsson, and Paul Bittner. Stenlund has been in Sweden since and just made his North American debut last year following the completion of HV71’s season in the SHL.

Stenlund had a solid, but not stellar year for HV71. Expectations were high for both Stenlund and HV71 for the 17-18 season and both fell short of those high hopes. Stenlund only produced 22 points in 43 games and HV71 finished 8th overall in the league. They were promptly swept in the playoffs, allowing Stenlund to be sent over to Cleveland for seven games in the “A”.

Columbus Blue Jackets

This year Stenlund will start, and hopefully, finish the year in Cleveland. The two way center needs a season in the AHL to take the next steps toward becoming an everyday NHL player.

Stenlund’s Skills

The Swede is a classic two-way center that thinks the game at a high level. Stenlund will never be a 70 point scorer in any league. His ceiling is a 2nd line NHL center, but that’s not bad for a late 2nd round pick.

Stenlund thinks the game at a high level and is a great playmaker. How the 2018-2019 plays out for Kevin will depend on two things.

The first is how quickly he can become accustom to the smaller ice and more physical play of the AHL. His noted decision making must be even sharper this year with less room to make plays and bigger consequences for mistakes. He is an above average puck handler and decent skater so he should be able to make some nice plays in tight areas.

The second variable is what type of wingers he plays with. Stenlund will rely heavily on Eric Robinson, Vitaly Abramov, Kole Sherwood, and Maxime Fortier to come into the AHL and be goal scoring wingers and compliment his playmaking style.

The Monsters last year were putrid offensively. The Columbus Blue Jackets farm team was the lowest scoring team in the entire AHL. They desperately need an infusion of scoring to come from their new arrivals, including Stenlund. That is asking a lot for three former junior player and a college player, but the Monsters desperately need it and it’s the only way they will be successful.

Swedish Translation

Stenlund has a leg up on his fellow Columbus Blue Jackets prospects transitioning into the AHL because of his previous league. The SHL is an elite league with great competition that should help #82 acclimate quicker than his peers.

Rob Vollman, long time author and statistician for ESPN, the NHL, and hockeyabstract.com, has created a “transition rate” stat that tries to predict how a player’s point production in one league will translate to the NHL. The SHL has the second highest transition rate at .58. The AHL is just behind the SHL at a .47 rate.

Using these numbers and Stenlund’s point per game average of .51 from last year in the SHL, we can predict that over a full 76 game season in the AHL, Stenlund is projected to score 49 points next year. That total would have led the Monsters in scoring by five points.

Of course, there are other factors to consider when looking at how Stenlund projects such as ice time and line-mates. Stenlund should get an opportunity to compete for the second line center position and could see second unit power play time. These would lead to less scoring opportunities than he had in HV71 though.

With all of this in mind, I think its fair to say expectations are reasonably high for Stendlund. The 2nd round pick played with men all last season, unlike many of his Monster’s teammates, and he already has seven games in the AHL under his belt. His 6’4″, 210 pound frame should help him in the more physical league as well. I expect the Swedish center to play in the AHL all season and break the 40 point mark.