Columbus Blue Jackets: Zach Werenski 18-19 Season Expectations

Coming into year three after a successful surgery, what are realistic expectations for the Columbus Blue Jackets All-Star blue liner?

Suffering an injury in game 12 last season, Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski played 65 games thereafter with a shoulder that would eventually require surgery. That number climbs to 71 if you count the playoffs.

Call me Captain Obvious, but if you didn’t appreciate his toughness after the Pittsburgh puck-to-face incident, the young Michigander’s legend is only growing.

Perhaps spoiled by his scorching rookie season (47pts, 11G, 36A), CBJ fans might have been wondering what was wrong with #8 last year? It might not have been obvious to the casual eye, but long-time Jackets fans or NHL die-hards noticed a subtle difference in Werenski’s slap shot. This was in my opinion, the most glaring tell of his shoulder injury. Something seemed off.

Impressively, he still managed to play in his first All-Star game and collected a very respectable 37 points (16G, 21A) through the regular season. Those 16 goals proved to be a franchise record for goals for a defenseman. It certainly makes one wonder what “Z” is capable of when he is fully healthy?

Ceiling for Z is High

Paired with arguably the league’s best defenseman, Seth Jones, Werenski is only coming into his third season with the Blue Jackets. Since defensemen notoriously develop slower than forwards, it is (good) scary to consider how high the 21 year old phenom’s ceiling is.

According to Steve Gorten for the Columbus Dispatch, the left-handed blue liner underwent his successful surgery on May 3rd. Subsequently, GM Jarmo Kekalainen and company have provided a rough estimate of five to six months for Werenski’s full recovery and ice debut.

With the season opener versus the Detroit Red Wings slated for October 4th, simple math tells us, he could technically be ready to go for game one. This is the best case scenario, albeit unlikely.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Regardless of how fast the shoulder heals or doesn’t, I wouldn’t expect to see #8 partake in any of the Jackets’ preseason games. The risk far outweighs the reward and his five month timeline doesn’t expire until the beginning of October.

If Werenski’s shoulder takes the full six months to heal, he might not be ready to play until early November. If this is the case, Z misses anywhere from 11-13 games.

Without any update from team doctors or leadership, I am going to project in the middle and speculate that Zach misses the first few games. The season is long and to rush something as critical as a major surgery is irresponsible. That being said, I am basing my expectations on a season that sees the young defenseman playing approximately 73 games.

In his first two seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Werenski played 78 and 77 games respectively. If he can stay healthy past his debut, this only has Zach missing a couple more games than he typically has.

Few players come back with little rust and I wouldn’t expect much different from #8. Even if he takes a few games to get going, I believe his accrued experience and recovered joint will have him scoring just north of his rookie season.

Paired with Seth Jones, playing 22 or 23 minutes on average per night I see Werenski topping his production from 2017-2018. Considering his position’s slow development, Z obliterates the curve many young defensemen play against and projects toward the league’s best in 2018-2019. I am not ready to crown him the next Seth Jones yet, but to say he’s far behind is amateur.

If (big if) he can finish the season without missing more than a game or two post-debut, I expect Werenski to score north of 50 points. I could easily see something like 15 goals and 35 assists, or just a touch above. Even though he doesn’t see the power play or first line overtime minutes that his partner does, Werenski’s offensive skill at this early stage trumps his All-Star partner by a surprising margin.

Don’t expect Werenski’s hits (he averages around 50 per season) or shooting percentage (7.7%) to jump. His style of play is consistent and his role is likely to stay put for years to come.  With a healthy shoulder, there’s a chance Z fires a few more pucks on net (207 last year) although I don’t foresee a giant leap here.

2018-2019 SEASON PROJECTION

Games Played: 73

Goals: 15

Assists: 36

Total Points: 51

According to Quanthockey.com, this would have been good for 17th in the NHL last year. If he can stay healthy, that feels about right. I don’t work in Jarmo’s office, but I presume he would consider that a win for the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Fans should enjoy watching #8 dust himself off in the early stages of 2018. He might get off to a slow start, but the momentum could be apparent and visible. Knowing Z is likely two or three years out from scratching his true potential is the icing, and the cake.