Yesterday, in my introduction to PDO I mentioned that the stat can be used more than just to analyze the play of a team or individual player, but could also be a useful tool for fantasy hockey. In essence, fantasy hockey is nothing more than making a prediction of how a player will perform (the draft) and then making decisions based upon the player’s actual performance (waivers / trades / setting your lineup).
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Since PDO measures regression and shows whether a player is under or over performing, it can be used to determine whether a player is in the middle of a hot streak, regressing, or due to improve. While it is by no means the only stat you should pay attention to in fantasy, it can be a big help in gaining idea where a particular player is at. Every player in your lineup is an asset with a value, and you want to get the most out of those assets.
Let’s use Tomas Hertl as an example, as he is off to the hottest fantasy start so far. Through six games, Hertl has a PDO of 1124, which means he is currently above the baseline of 1000. At some point, Hertl is going to regress and go back to a level of offensive production that is more expected of a NHL rookie. By watching Hertl’s PDO, you can time that regression and either set your lineup accordingly, or sell high on Hertl in a trade. In this example, you would be taking some risk, as Hertl has shown he is going to have great fantasy production, especially when on SJ’s top line, so it would be better to just ride the highs and lows.
We can also tie several advanced stats together to gain a better picture of a players performance and their fantasy potential. Cam Atkinson has once again caught the attention of Jackets fans. Let’s take a closer look at his potential for fantasy value. First off, Atkinson is only owned in 1.8% of ESPN leagues and he has 2G and 2A on the season. At first glance, he doesn’t appear to hold much value for your fantasy lineup, however let’s dig deeper with some advanced stats.
Atkinson has a PDO of 992 on the season, meaning he is close to the baseline, but slightly under performing and possibly on an upswing. He has a pretty good relative Corsi of 9.7, facing lower quality of competition (0.421 Corsi RelQoC) and is paired up with higher quality team mates (2.525 Corsi RelQoT). There are probably better options available on the waiver wire, but if you are in a deeper league, if you MUST have a Jacket in your lineup, or are looking for a few spot starts due to injuries, Cam Atkinson could have some fantasy potential.
Union and Blue Fantasy Fix 005: Weekly Watch List:
Tyler Bozak (F) TOR: Bozak is off to a great start with the Leafs, he has 3G and 2A in 7 games. Bozak is still available in 22% of ESPN leagues. While he has been a great fantasy asset so far, he has a pretty low -10.2 relative Corsi, but he does have a 1097 PDO. Bozak is worth a pick up or at least a close watch to see if his presence on the score sheet continues. 1097 PDO does indicate he is over performing, but it remains to be seen if he has reached his peak yet.
Brad Boyes (F) FLA: Boyes is available in 80% of ESPN leagues, but has been putting up decent fantasy production on Florida’s top line. His 890 PDO indicates that he actually has room to improve, but even more impressive is his production while facing relatively high quality of compeition (Corsi RelQoC: 1.201) with somewhat lower Corsi RelQotT: 0.345. This indicates that Boyes is doing a lot of the work himself, making him an interesting fantasy candidate.