Out of the clear blue, my daughter in law started reciting a hockey example from the book Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell. What she was telling me was very interesting, so I got the book. The hockey example is a study of the better junior hockey players and a characteristic many share. But before I share that with you, I need to define Outliers. From the book, the definition is: a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample; or- something that is situated away from or classed differently from a main or related body. This may be clear for some, and clear as mud for others, but getting to the example may help.
One other thing as an aside, the first hockey team used as “an illustration” of this abnormality in the book was the the 2007 Medicine Hat Tigers. Two players on that roster will be familiar to Blue Jacket fans, Derek Dorsett and Kris Russell.
Now here is the thing, the characteristic, that was noted. Most of the better hockey players were born early in the year. The most frequent month, January, the second most frequent month, February, the third, March. In all, 40% of the players, were born in Jan-March and 30% in April-June. There are 5.5 times as many top players born in January than in November.
Now, as it turns out, it’s not something in the water that causes this. It’s opportunity and a little of what might be called, “stacking the deck”. The root cause so to speak, is the fact that schools, hockey leagues etc are set up so players with a birthday 1/1/xx are on the same team as players with a birthday 12/31/xx. Thus the 1/1 players can be much older and more physically developed.These players are then viewed as better and are chosen for all star squads etc, receiving more training and practice, making them increasingly better etc. In fact another study highlighted by the book indicates it takes about 10,000 hours of practice at anything to become really good. [this includes musicians, and bands {Beatles used as an example}, business, Bill gates used as an example, as well as sports figures in all sports. These then are the players that are chosen for the top junior hockey teams in the top leagues. Ultimately these are the types of players who make it to the NHL after getting all the advantages.
Thus in some cases, a potentially good player never gets a true chance to show how good he is, because he doesn’t get the chance to show his true talent at an early age as he was not in the top of the players in his “year of assignment”. Of course, not all players are born Jan-June. So some of the other 30% could be better in later life than the apparent better ones now.
So, when picking a Junior Hockey League player, part of the issue becomes, are these the best because they still have a jump start on others, or are these a late bloomer and have more talent, it’s just not quite manifested?