Jackets to win 29 Games


We want the cup – say it and mean it!!!

No, I am not a median or psychic. Fortunately or unfortunately I am a simple hockey fan that happens to be a retired engineer so my background is /numbers and facts  statistics, or more realistically a sadistic.  So I like numbers, particularly simple numbers. So I was interested when a few days ago Hockey Writers had an article referencing statistics in predicting

wins. It peaked my interest. They had quotes from a book that made fun of the phrase “on pace for” as used in sports. IE   xxxxxx   is on pace for 162 home runs if   xxxxxx   hits a home run on opening day. Instead they presented a fairly simple formula based on goals for and against as a way to predict wins. In a big way this makes sense, winning and losing is based on goals scored and goals given up and that is the bottom line.  One other thing, They noted that after the result of 25 games, the results stabilized and became pretty accurate.

Of course, there are outside events that affect prediction statistics. Example: Injuries/ trades/changes in players, possibly changes in coaches but at least changes in mode of play. [ie the Blues this year after they started playing “Hitch Hockey”] So again take with a grain of salt. Note: as with my usual inclusion – “with a grain of salt”  Is actually a translation of the Latin phrase “cum grano salis.” There seems to be a bit of a debate about the significance of the Latin phrase, however. Etymologist Christine Ammer traces it to Pompey’s discovery, recorded by Pliny in 77 A.D., of an antidote to poison which had to be taken with a small amount of salt to be effective.

But after 25 games the Jackets were predicted to win 27 games. After the trade of Carter and the acquisition of Jack Johnson, and with the current win streak of 3 games, the predictions have risen to 29 games as of today. It is a little depressing to see that very early [like after 10 games] the predictions ranged from 25 to 33 even when the season had just started and we had mostly lost every game. And it is coming to fruition.

In truth, not a lot of difference, and both the 27 and the 29 seem likely. But since the 29 projection is after the trade/player movement, I will go with that.

Note: Jeff over at  Ten Minute Misconduct lamented on the Dispatch reporting again. They certainly do a disservice to the more casual fan, the community and the Blue Jackets in total. But I understand their job is to write and try to stir up newspaper sales. It is too bad the world as a whole wants negative reporting, on everything, and they feel they must feed this negativity to sell papers.