Columbus Blue Jackets: Anthony Duclair 2018-2019 Season Projections

If there is a true wild card in the Columbus Blue Jackets lineup, his name is Anthony Duclair. What can Jackets fans expect from the journeyman forward in 2018-2019?

When the Columbus Blue Jackets signed left wing Anthony Duclair this summer, the certainly did so hoping to see flashes of the 2015-2016 version that scored 44 points (20G, 22A) in 81 games. Duclair came into the NHL after being drafted by the Rangers and dealt to the Arizona Coyotoes not long after.

That would not be the end of “Duke’s” journey though. Two years later, Duclair was sent packing once again, this time to the Chicago Blackhawks. Often tagged with the label of being inconsistent, the speedy wing has struggled to string together even a pair of 20-point seasons.

The good news for Duclair is that at this point of his young career (he just turned 23), expectations are now low. Some might see this as an indicator that he topped out early, but I don’t think that’s the case. At a slim price tag of just $650,000, the Quebecer has only one direction to go; up.

Columbus is by no means a “last stop” for Duclair, but it’s certainly some sort of career notice. So  what does all this mean for the Columbus Blue Jackets?

It’s challenging enough to project any player’s seasonal output. That being said, trying to guesstimate on the Jackets’ latest winger feels near impossible. Below I do my best factoring in line placement, team depth, Duclair’s brief NHL history and more.

Statistically Speaking

Duclair is now going on three years removed from his breakout season in Arizona. Since then, his best offensive output came last year when he scored 23 points (11G, 12A)  in 56 games split between the Hawks and the Yotes. It sounds apologetic, but with just five more points, Duclair would’ve been scoring .5 points per game (PPG) which is perfectly respectable.

For scale, the streaky forward has played a very steady 13-14 minutes per game since arriving in the NHL. That roughly equates to third line minutes. Doing a little math, if you told me Duclair would post anywhere near 40 points in his first year in Columbus, I’d buy your $8 bag of Nationwide peanuts.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Coming back to reality, Duclair is going to feature on the Jackets fourth line next to center Riley Nash or Brandon Dubinsky. Unless the injury bug hits hard, this will be his home. I wouldn’t expect to see the winger for more than 10 minutes a night.

After losing penalty kill specialist to the Colorado Avalanche, look for #91 to find footing on the PK early. The CBJ power play already has more forwards than it can get on the ice, so Duke’s potential for impact would be on the kill.

Something I try to never overlook is shooting percentage (SPCT) because it’s typically a much better indicator of scoring potential than actual goals scored. Duclair has a rather impressive career SPCT of 12.5%. That would’ve been good for third on the Columbus Blue Jackets last year, trailing only Sonny Milano and short-term loaner Thomas Vanek.

Summing It Up

Without digging through numerical data, I want to point out a few other qualities Duclair brings to the Jackets. Since his rookie year, the left winger has shown he’s incredibly responsible with the puck. His takeaway to turnover ratio hovers at 1.52 (takeaways versus one giveaway).

Also, the Duke utilizes excellent speed to get open and help out on the back check. He doesn’t shoot often, but when he does – he scores at a higher rate than most.

Like any NHL’er, Duclair’s career year saw a numbers boost from being featured on his team’s first power play unit. He won’t have that opportunity to improve his numbers in Columbus so he’ll have to make his money elsewhere. On a team with depth the franchise has not yet known, his work is certainly cut out for him.

To make it in Columbus, Duclair needs to find his niche and fast. With waves of young forwards nipping at his heels, in many ways it is a now or never kind of situation. The good thing for the Jackets is, the former Blackhawk comes at the cost of little risk, potentially high reward.

Statistical Projections

Goals: 13

Assists: 16

Plus/Minus Rating: -4