Lockout Day 60- Springfield Falcons, 62 Predicted Wins

Those of you who follow this blog will remember I presented this predicted wins concept relative to the Blue Jackets last March. No, I am not a median or psychic. Fortunately or unfortunately I am a simple hockey fan that happens to be a retired engineer so my background is /numbers and facts  statistics, or more realistically a sadistic.  So I like numbers, particularly simple numbers. So I was interested when a few months ago Hockey Writers had an article referencing statistics in predicting wins. It peaked my interest.

They had quotes from a book that made fun of the phrase “on pace for” as used in sports. IE   xxxxxx   is on pace for 162 home runs if   xxxxxx   hits a home run on opening day. Instead they presented a fairly simple formula based on goals for and against as a way to predict wins. In a big way this makes sense, winning and losing is based on goals scored and goals given up and that is the bottom line.  One other thing, They noted that after the result of 25 games, the results stabilized and became pretty accurate.

Of course, there are outside events that affect prediction statistics. Example: Injuries/ trades/changes in players, etc.

So even though the Falcons lost last night, the mathematical model predicts that they will win 62 games. Again it is early and the schedule has favored the Falcons with a huge amount of home games, but stats are stats. I will present the updated statistics from time to time, just to see how good the predicted formula is.

So again take with a grain of salt. Note: as with my usual inclusion – “with a grain of salt”  Is actually a translation of the Latin phrase “cum grano salis.” There seems to be a bit of a debate about the significance of the Latin phrase, however. Etymologist Christine Ammer traces it to Pompey’s discovery, recorded by Pliny in 77 A.D., of an antidote to poison which had to be taken with a small amount of salt to be effective.





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